health reform
Stuart Butler had some very provocative things to say about health reform today at the National Economists Club. The respected Heritage Foundation economist said:
Health reform: How the 25% chance I see of failure might unfold. Although President Obama and Democratic leaders of Congress are increasingly optimistic about passing health reform before Congress departs on Easter Recess March 26, lot's of hurdles remain. Here's how it might unravel and what to watch for if it does unravel, a 25% shot in my estimation.
Fails to pass the House Sunday. This seems quite unlikely at this point, but it is possible. The first sign would be any postponement beyond Sunday. House Democratic leaders would only allow a vote to occur on the rule and on passage of the reconciliation bill, H.R.4872, if they were confident the votes would be there to pass them. If Sunday early afternoon passes without a House vote on the rule, that would be an ominous sign. If the vote on the rule failed, House leaders would almost certainly pull the bill.
A top House Democratic staffer just told me the reconciliation bill, with some surprises, and a tentative CBO score will be posted on the House Rules web site late tonight or early tomorrow morning. Then a final CBO score will be posted Friday. The Rules Committee will meet Friday to mark up the rule. Then the House will vote on the rule Saturday, engage in perhaps four hours of debate, and, later Saturday, take the final vote on the reconciliation bill, which will deem the passage of the Senate bill.
Richard J. Ablin is the University of Arizona research professor who discovered the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test in 1970. Today, in a New York Times op-ed, he decried the misuse of that test by health care monopolies to drive up profits with promises of catching prostate cancer early. First of all, the test can't detect cancer. Screening most men over age 50 costs over $3 billion a year, but has been proven in two recent studies to have little or no effect on life expectancy. Only 16% of men will ever be diagnosed with prostate cancer and only 3% will ever die of it. A European study concluded 47 men suffer grievous treatments that result in loss of sexual activity and incontinence for each life saved. Professional associations are beginning to recommend against PSA tests, but not those captive of the drug companies. Ablin concluded, "I never dreamed that my discovery four decades ago would lead to such a profit-driven public health disaster. The medical community must confront reality and stop the inappropriate use of P.S.A. screening.
