government shutdown

I've been very hesitant to say anything about the possibility of a government shutdown when the current continuing resolution expires this Friday at midnight because...honestly...I've been predicting that one would occur since last year and have been wrong in much the same way that some economists are accused of predicting 10 of the last 2 recessions.

It bears mentioning, however, that the most recent dispute over government spending is proving to be far more intractable than most observers and participants had imagined it would be because (1) the recent GOP reticence about being blamed for stalemates on Capital Hill seems to have evaporated and (2) the fight over funding for the rest of fiscal 2012 is now combined with so many other politically tough or tantalizing issues.

I would not be at all surprised, therefore, if one of three things happen by the stroke of midnight on Friday, December 16:

The current continuing resolution expires at midnight Friday and, if it’s not extended, there will be a government shutdown.

The current plan appears to be to extend the CR until the middle of December and, unlike previous CR battles, this one has been devoid of all threats and demands for additional spending cuts. But..although it is unlikely, it is not inconceivable that there will be a last-minute attempt by House Republicans to use the CR as leverage with House Democrats or the White House on something.

As a result, a shutdown at least over this weekend cannot be dismissed out of hand.

Hint: Watch the Sunday talk shows scramble for guests and quickly change their focus if this happens.

Saying that "agita" means "heartburn" is a little like describing a bagel as a bread donut. That's why the word is so perfect is explaining the angst in Washington these days about appropriations...at least that's what I say in my weekly "Fiscal Fitness" column in today's Roll Call.

One of the ways we used to judge the success of the congressional budget process was by the number of appropriations that were enacted when the fiscal year began.

Now we determine success by whether Congress has avoided a government shutdown.

Does anyone else find this as totally ludicrous as I do?

My column from his morning's Roll Call explains why last week's near miss on a government shutdown is just the first of a series of cliff hanger endings that are going to take place between now and October 1 on the budget. With the debt ceiling already tied to the tracks, it's not at all clear at this point who the federal fiscal hero will be and whether he or she will show up in time.