Fiscal 2009

It's typical: a long assumed situation (or in this case, a number) becomes more of a reality (and, therefore, news) when it's included in an official government report for the first time.  This is true even when, like yesterday, there was absolutely no dispute that the situation or number would occur in the first place.

Did anyone who follows the budget really not know that, as the Congressional Budget Office's Budget and Economic Outlook released yesterday said, the fiscal 2009 deficit wasn't going to be close to or exceed $1 trillion?  Was anyone really shocked?  Was it really news?

I won't get a chance to review the budget section of the report in detail until the weekend.  But a quick review shows that there are several things to keep in mind beyond the headline number $1.2 trillion pre-stimulus deficit 2009 estimate.

Today is the first day of fiscal 2009.

What were you doing at midnight last night?

The Washington Post has a story this morning about a new Bush administration plan to help homeowners who are "underwater," that is, whose home is worth less than their mortgage and can't sell or refinance it because they don't have the cash they would need at closing.  Contrary to the president's often-repeated assertions that he wouldn't do it, the plan apparently will require taxpayer dollars.

Anyone who has watched the mortgage situation deteriorate over the the past year could see this coming.  The early "over my dead body" statements by the administration were slowly, incrementally, and sometimes imperceptively replaced with positions that tilted increasingly toward "not yet."  In other words, it was only a matter of time.

If you think the fiscal 2008 budget debate has been (pick as many as apply) infuriating, deflating, annoying, irritating, or disappointing, wait until you see what I predict in my column for NationalJournal.com for next year.

The quick answer: even more stalemates and lower federal spending by accident.