StanCollender'sCapitalGainsandGames Washington, Wall Street and Everything in Between



ficsal stimulus

Posted by Andrew Samwick

Chris Edley comes up with a smart way to assist the states in managing their fiscal challenges -- advance them the money, but don't give it away.  From his op-ed in The New York Times:

Here’s how this would work. States already receive regular federal matching grants to help pay for Medicaid, welfare, highway construction programs and more. For instance, the federal government pays a share of state Medicaid costs, from 50 percent to more than 75 percent, depending on a state’s wealth. The matching rates were temporarily sweetened by last year’s stimulus.

But Congress should pass legislation that would allow a state to simply get an “advance” on these future federal dollars expected from entitlement programs. The advance could then be used for regional stimulus, to continue state services and to hasten our recovery.

Posted by Pete Davis
This morning's Urban Institute discussion with Moody's Analytics Mark Zandi and Urban Institute Fellow Rudy Penner is well worth watching. Zandi recommended another stimulus bill of at least $200 billion, as Congress and President Obama have already embarked upon, and Penner questioned the "bang for the buck" of last year's stimulus and this year's additional stimulus. "The risk is that the politicians will put off the day of reckoning, but the world won't let us...There may be an Ireland in our future," Penner said.
 
Zandi sees between a 25% chance and a 33% chance that the recovery will stall late this year because of rising home foreclosures, commercial real estate failures, state and local government layoffs, and frozen bank lending. He noted that for the first time in history, in the third quarter of 2009, net credit in the United States declined. In other words, massive government borrowing was overtaken by private debt reduction.
Posted by Pete Davis

This afternoon, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs told reporters, " Well, I would describe tomorrow as not the totality of all the president's ideas. The president will discuss a few ideas that he has heard in his discussions with CEOs and small businesses. I think, obviously, one of the things the president talked about today was that even as -- even as things are getting better for larger banks, that there are many, many small businesses throughout the country that still have a lot of problems in getting access to the type of credit that they were normally getting before the economic -- the great economic downturn.  We are looking at ways that would help small businesses get that credit; find access to that capital. And the president will discuss other ways that he believes the government can assist the private sector in an atmosphere that leads to additional hiring and jobs."

Posted by Stan Collender
Andrew Samwick makes a strong case in today's Washington Post for why the fiscal stimulus working its way through the legislative process may well be the wrong policy.



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