I've gotten more questions the past two weeks from folks on Wall Street about where the Pentagon budget is heading than I've gotten the whole rest of the year. The questions are not about what is happening now or will happen next year, but about military spending starting in 2009.

My answer almost always suprises the callers: Regardless of who is elected president and which party controls Congress, and even if all activities in Iraq and Afghanistan cease, it is very unlikely there will be a large drop in military spending.

It now seems almost inevitable that, regardless of who is elected president and which politicla party controls Congress, federal spending and borrowing will have to increase substantially in the coming years. My guess is that a 25 percent real increase over current levels -- about $125 billion -- is coming.