Deficit reduction

I have to admit that I didn't notice it either when the Treasury last week showed that the fiscal 2012 deficit could be almost 30 percent lower than the deficit actually recorded in fiscal 2011.

The new estimate of $996.5 billion for the 2012 deficit that was included in table 2 of the Monthly Treasury Statement for October 2011 was an eye-popping $419.7 billion less than the $1.416.2 trillion deficit in 2011.

The 2012 estimate is just that -- an estimate. Not only is the fiscal year only 10 weeks old, but the Treasury number is based on the mid-session review of the budget that was published in September, that is, more than 3 months ago. The number almost certainly will change as the year continues.

So just to be safe, let's say that the federal deficit will fall from 2011 to 2012 by $350 billion rather than almost $420 billion (Note...it could just as easily fall by more instead of less). The question remains: Why wasn't it bigger news? After all, other than the years immediately following World War II, this would be one of the largest one-year drops in U.S. history.

My column from today's Roll Call is the first in a series I will be writing over the next year about what it's really going to take to reduce the federal deficit: It's going to hurt and anyone why says otherwise is misinformed (possible), misleading (probable), or just plain lying (very likely).

Just to be clear: No matter what anyone says or what you want to think, there are and will be no silver bullets or magic elixirs.

Spending cuts will reduce services and what the government buys from someone.  Revenue increases mean that someone will pay more to the government. There will be some winners, but mostly there will be losers

Unless you still believe in the tooth fairly and Santa Claus, stop believing anyone who says this isn't the case.

Pain Has to Be Added to the Budget Debate

Dec. 13, 2011

Back in August I said that the super committee and the rest of the Budget Control Act might not make it to Christmas. As I explain in my column from today's Roll Call, that assessment might have been a little optimistic. In fact, I may have been one holiday too late. It now appears that the super committee (Will someone please explain to me why it deserves that name?) and much of the rest of the deal could crater by this Thanksgiving.

 Budget Deal May Be Turkey This Thanksgiving

My column from today's Roll Call asks (and answers) the question of why does anyone think the super committee has to succeed?

Why Must the Super Committee Succeed?

Last week’s Fiscal Fitness asked what would happen if the Joint Committee on Deficit Reduction — the super committee that has yet to demonstrate in any way that the name is appropriate — failed? In case you don’t remember, the answer was — and still is — not much, and very possibly nothing at all.

My column from today's Roll Call asks aloud the question that everyone involved with the budget seems to be asking themselves these days -- What happens if (or when) the super committee fails to do what it was charged with doing?  The answer may be surprising: Nothing immediately and perhaps nothing at all.