StanCollender'sCapitalGainsandGames Washington, Wall Street and Everything in Between



budget politics

Posted by Stan Collender

It's a very (at least by Washington standards) snowy day in and around the beltway, so what better time than to demonstrate the extreme (bordering on the ultra) hypocrisy these days that exists when it comes to the federal budget. All of these seemingly unrelated events and announcements took place over the past four weeks.

Posted by Stan Collender

Regardless of whether it's actually adopted, five individuals, groups and organizations stand out as being the biggest losers from the budget deal announced Tuesday evening. They are:

1. Fix The Debt. FTD is the high-profile corporate-funded organization that has been pushing hard for a grand bargain dealing with the long-term budget issues. In spite of the statement FTD issued, this deal was a total rejection of what FTD has raised and spent so much money trying to get Congress to do. You might even call it a smackdown. Not only will there be no Fix the Debt-preferred agreement in 2014, the deal closes the door on that type of agreement in 2015 as well. And does anyone really think Congress is going to take on Social Security and Medicare just before the 2016 presidential election?

Posted by Stan Collender

I've been talking for months about how the Grand Bargain or Big Deal that's always mentioned whenever there are budget talks in Washington won't happen until 2019 at the earliest.

I first posted about 2019 in June and have mentioned it a number of times on television and radio and in speeches since then.

I've also been told that my analysis recently made the big time when a group of the most senior tax lobbyists in Washington discussed it at a private meeting (It's not clear whether they were happy about having six more years to work on issues or sad that nothing much would be done before the end of this decade at the earliest).

Each time I've talked about 2019 I've gotten reactions that range from shock to amazement. No one ever tells me I'm wrong; they just shake their heads in disbelief.

So once again, here's are the top 10 reasons we're likely facing six more years of crisis-by-crisis budgeting in Washington and no Grand Bargain any time soon.

Posted by Stan Collender

By changing it's rules yesterday to prevent filibusters on executive branch and judicial nominees (other than the Supreme Court) -- the so-called nuclear option -- the Senate further complicated a federal budget debate that was already overly complicated and had little chance of success.

Although it's still less likely than likely, the prospects for a government shutdown in January increased significantly. Based on yesterday's action, I have increased the possibility that funding for the federal government will not be adopted by the time the current continuing resolution expires to 40 percent.

And the likelihood for sequestration to occur as scheduled in mid-January also jumped significantly.

Here's why.

1. In general terms, the federal budget debate in recent years has always been more emotional than rational and far more political than substantive. The emotions and politics were significantly ramped up yesterday.

Posted by Stan Collender

Eminent economist Martin Feldstein, former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors during the Reagan Administration, had an op-ed in The Washington Post earlier this week that shows he just doesn't understand what's happening with the budget conference.

Here's the money quote:

The key to a political compromise is to recognize that raising revenue does not require increasing tax rates. Substantial revenue could be raised by limiting the government spending built into the tax code."

Feldstein accurately notes that this would give congressional Democrats enough of what they want in a budget deal to agree to changes in mandatory programs, especially "slowing the growth of Social Security and Medicare."



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