2008 election

David Corn, in a piece in this morning's Washington Post, looks at the Obama cabinet appointments and laments what he says is not the change he was expecting or that he says "we" were promised.

Corn is defining the word "change" improperly and, while he uses the word "we," isn't talking for what I'd be willing to bet is a majority of Americans.  His definition -- progressives and liberals rather than centrists and conservatives -- is not what I heard Barack Obama say during the campaign.  To me, "change," meant only one thing: Not George Bush.

Obama repeatedly and continuously talked about how electing John McCain would be another four years of George Bush, but electing him would produce the departure from current policies, fears, and disappointments people wanted.  He provided some specifics, but what he was really promising was just the general idea that he wouldn't continue what Bush had been doing.

I'm not asking about lawn signs, which are easy to remove.  I'm asking about bumper stickers, which once applied are so difficult to remove that they are often seen months or even years later.

Tomorrow will be just four weeks since the election.  I see lots of Obama but no McCain bumper stickers.  It's certainly possible that bumper sticker technology has improved and the glue has changed.  But is something else going on here?  Is the election still going on in some sense?

(Related question: How long before we start seeing "Don't blame me, I voted Republican" bumper stickers?)

The day after election day, the head of the polling division in my firm showed me what at the time I thought was a startling statistic: exit polls indicated that those making in excess of $200,000 a year voted for Barack Obama 52 to 46 percent.  Like this story from Slate, there are now other indications that this was, in fact, the case.

I was surprised because for much of the past year I made close to 500 presentations around the country almost exclusively to people who were earning $200,000 (or much more) and it didn't take long for them to tell me that there was no chance they would vote for Obama.

This almost blood oath not to vote for Obama got much more vocal whenever the election focus turned to the Obama plan to increase taxes on those making over $250,000.  No matter where I was in the more than 70 cities and surrounded areas I visited across the U.S.), I was repeatedly told that this showed that Obama didn't understand the markets, the economy, the importance of wealth creation, etc.  A number of people offered to bet big sums that he wouldn't win.

Dartmouth hosted another post-election panel yesterday, this one convened by President Jim Wright and consisting of a number of Dartmouth alumni who have engaged in public policy whether in office, in academia, or in the media.  Here are some notes I took at the event:

1. Was this really the shattering of a glass ceiling?  If George H.W. Bush had won in 1992 and the field were wide open and the economy were in the toilet in 1996, would Obama and the campaign that he ran in 2008 have also won in 1996?  I think so.  What do you think?


2. Why do Democrats still have to answer Republican questions, even when they win the election?  George W. Bush loses the popular vote and governs like he won a mandate.  Obama wins convincingly and he is somehow supposed to take it slow?  Not if he really does want to solidify a realignment.


3. What happens if these new voters from 2008 are unemployed in 2010 or 2012?  I'm guessing they will want change again.  Obama has such a tough road ahead of him.


4. If the Obama administration is going well in 2012, would Obama drop Biden as a running mate to set up a chosen successor for 2016?


5. Will the Democrats ever nominate a white male for the top spot again?


6. When will the Republicans nominate someone for the top spot who is much younger than his Democratic opponent?

On Friday afternoon, the Rockefeller Center convened a panel of faculty to discuss the outcomes, consequences, and next steps after the 2008 elections.  We tried something new: 10 faculty members speaking for about 5 minutes about their specific areas of expertise. I spoke about fiscal policy (at about one hour and 5 minutes into the video).  You can watch the YouTube video by following this link.