From my column in today's Roll Call, here are my predictions for what's ahead next year after we deal (or possibly don't deal) with the fiscal cliff.
A Budget Crystal Ball for 2013
Don’t expect Congress to tackle a tax overhaul anytime soon
For the third year in a row I am not writing a year-in-review column because, honestly, they’re boring and unnecessary. If you’ve been interested enough in the federal budget to read my column in 2012, you already know what happened and probably don’t want to be reminded. If you didn’t care during the year, you don’t need to know now.
Besides, what’s to come in 2013 is definitely more interesting.
Yes, I'm still pessimistic about a fiscal cliff deal before January 1. While the odds of avoiding the cliff seemed to improve yesterday as the headlines screamed that Obama and Boehner had moved closer to each other, it was clear to me that, if they had improved at all, it was only marginally. To my mind it's still better than 3:1 that we go over the cliff.
Here's why.
First, this was always going to be a two-step process: Obama vs. Boehner, then Republicans vs. Democrats. Even if the first step was successful, the second step was always going to be problematic. And an agreement in the first step would likely make the second more difficult.
That, in fact, is exactly what happened over the past 24 hours. The rumor that Obama and Boehner were close energized the rank and file in the House and Senate, who have not been part of the negotiations and had little stake in the outcome.
By this morning, both the White House and House Republicans had rejected what the other had offered.


