StanCollender'sCapitalGainsandGames Washington, Wall Street and Everything in Between

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  • Palin, Two Weeks On   8 years 14 weeks ago

    It was Palin v Hillary on SNL last night. I happened to be in a fairly busy restaurant as it was on, and everyone stopped everything they were doing to watch and cheer both of 'em, back and forth. I haven't seen a SNL skit grab that much attention since ... I was young, and that was so long ago my memory has failed, so I don't remember at all.

    Palin and Hillary, but no Biden.

    As the saying goes, all publicity is good publicity, no publicity is bad publicity ... Obama just lost another point.

  • Palin, Two Weeks On   8 years 14 weeks ago

    ...making assumptions. I'm giving an 'if...then' argument. SOMETHING changed the 13 point deficit, and the 30%-26% analysis is clearly flawed.

    But, just how important are 'evangelicals' in Minn? Having traveled through the state a few times, my impression is that 'hockey moms' are larger.

  • Palin, Two Weeks On   8 years 14 weeks ago

    Good luck to all.

    I've mentioned (on this board) the fiasco that removal of the uptick rule and continuation of illegal naked shorting was -- basically Cox is an idiot.

    I knew we were in trouble when the last Democrat resigned from the SEC board over this . . . they KNEW it would precipitate a disaster. But SEC is in the industry's pocket (regulatory capture as Samwick would say), and has been corrupt for a long time.

    Bush administration has bankrupted us.

    Bernanke gets it, but will he be able to save us?

  • Palin, Two Weeks On   8 years 14 weeks ago

    " If the 'less likely' are solid Obama Dems, and the 'more likely' voted for Hillary, then Palin is the reason for the change in the polling."

    You make a big assumption (that the 'less likely' are all Obama Dems and the 'more likely' are HIllary voters).

    You need to understand the demographics here . . . there were a lot of evangelicals who weren't going to vote AT ALL before Palin was put on the ticket. I've spoken to many of them myself.

    Many of the 'more likely' were these evangelicals, NOT Hillary supporters. Palin could be the reason, but the shift probably is not what you are assuming.

  • Palin, Two Weeks On   8 years 14 weeks ago

    MM if Palin isn't making a difference, why is McCain now dead even with Obama. He used to be behind by 13 points. This:

    'But the Minnesota Poll found that the choice of Palin was essentially a wash among the state's voters.

    'While 30 percent said it made them more likely to vote for the Republican ticket, 26 percent said it made them less likely to do so.'

    Is pretty bad as analysis. If the 'less likely' are solid Obama Dems, and the 'more likely' voted for Hillary, then Palin is the reason for the change in the polling. And, no one was predicting Minn. was going to be a toss up.

  • Palin, Two Weeks On   8 years 14 weeks ago

    Now Barclays and BAC have backed out of a deal with Lehman.

    On to bankruptcy . . . and now BAC in talks to (possibly) take over Merrill . . .

    Financial sector continues it's collapse . . . but nobody seems to care.

  • Auto Bailout Picks Up Support   8 years 14 weeks ago

    Let me just say that I'm against government bailouts. We're just passing our problems on to future generations. Not to mention that one of these days the huge deficits we are running will cause the monetary system to collapse like a house of cards.

    On the other hand, allowing our auto industry to shut down will costs us jobs, which our economy desperately needs.

    This presents an opportunity for our elected officials to do something productive. Give the big three the low-interest loans they need only on the condition that they design and sell vehicles that run on natural gas within 2 or 3 years. This will give us time to get our gas stations ready to sell this cheap fuel we have an abundance of.

    The price of oil will drop, maybe to $40 or $50 per barrel. It will provide a tax break to working Americans in the form of lower fuel costs and we can finally give the finger to countries like Venezuela who think they can hold America hostage with their oil production.

    Of course our elected ones will need to divorce themselves of oil money. It could be very interesting to find out which ones are in the pockets of big oil.

  • Palin, Two Weeks On   8 years 14 weeks ago

    I think this is about right. The emperor has no clothes (needs a fig leaf). I also think that some of the Obama "Middle class tax cuts" are actually part of the AMT fix. Obama has more revenue in his budget than McCain, so they are not exactly equal. McCain is much more off base with revenue than Obama. Clinton had to drop his middle class tax cuts in 1993.

    "Sen. John McCain's chief economic adviser, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, "makes it clear that the next President is going to have to raise taxes," according to Joe Klein.

    Said Holtz-Eakin: "If you do nothing on the spending side, you're going to have to raise taxes whether you're a Republican, a Democrat or a Martian."

    He then immediately makes it clear that the "spending side" part of the argument for cutting taxes is "nothing more than a political fig-leaf" covering up basic arithmetic. The growth of entitlement programs and spiraling health costs make it nearly impossible to cut spending for McCain's proposed tax cuts.

    When asked why tax cutting remains the central theme of Republican campaigns, Holz-Eakin said, "It's the brand, and you don't dilute the brand."

    Of course, this also means Sen. Barack Obama's proposed "middle class tax cuts" are equally as foolish given the current state of the federal budget."

  • Palin, Two Weeks On   8 years 14 weeks ago

    And we all know that Reagan sidetracked our energy policy, armed the Afghanis that eventually turned into the Taliban, oversaw the S&L crisis, refused to step in early to prevent the spread of AIDS, spent hundreds of Billions on defense and Star Wars programs that don't work, and tripled the national debt. Reagan stimulated the economy with $1.8 Trillion in deficit spending.

    There were some positives from the Reagan era but a lot of long term problems were made worse by his policies.

    McCain and Palin will continue along the Republican Borrow and Spend trajectory with their whole hearted support for Bush tax cuts. Even Greenspan now admits it is a bad idea to continue the Bush tax cuts. Over half of our national debt has been created since 1980 under the tax policies of Republican Presidents.

  • Palin, Two Weeks On   8 years 14 weeks ago

    And seen as much less qualified to be president than Biden.

  • Palin, Two Weeks On   8 years 14 weeks ago

    I'm sticking with what I said here two weeks ago:

    'Palin appeals to all the Pennsylvanians, Ohioans, and Michiganders who Obama thinks cling to religion and guns.

    'It puts Washington and Oregon in play for Republicans. Gov. Christine Gregoire probably didn't sleep very soundly last night over the prospect of Palin campaigning in her state under a 'Re-elect Rossi' banner.'

    Rossi is now leading Gov. Gregoire in Washington state, and Palin hasn't even campaigned for him yet. I doubt McCain realized what an impact she would have, but she's turned the race around.

    Obama appeals to intellectuals--Hayek's 'second hand dealers in ideas--Palin's story; small business, PTA, city council, mayor, governor, appeals to millions of Americans. She's Reagan in a skirt.

  • Palin, Two Weeks On   8 years 14 weeks ago

    I think you miss the reason why many people like Palin. Palin is seen as middle class. She is a fighter. As a 'blank slate" voters assume that Palin shares their own views until they learn more about her actual views.

    Obama has run an intellectual campaign, not as an economic populist. Voters question whether or not Obama will fight for their economic interests (or fight for anything).

    The current dynamic may hold. Or the voters could finally figure out that McCain economic policies are more of the failed trickle down (life under the urinal) polcies of Bush and Palin is indeed lipstick on that pig.

    Or Obama figures out what Gore figured out in late 2000. Voters want someone to fight for their economic interests and against the irresponsible, crony, special interest, unregulated, predatory policies of Bush that have failed our country. Media elites express alarm at cries for "Soak the rich" because our media elites are rich. However, the public really wants to "Soak the rich" and quite frankly, it is time for the rich to pony up a massive downward transfer of wealth.

  • Palin, Two Weeks On   8 years 14 weeks ago

    Even though I generally agree with your thesis here, I don't think it's correct to argue that groups like NOW only deal in identity politics.

    Gloria Steinem (whose opinions I do not categorically agree with, but who I think wrote with some insight here) wrote in her editorial on Palin that "Feminism has never been about getting a job for one woman. It's about making life more fair for women everywhere." For that reason, I don't think that refusing to support Sarah Palin's candidacy is inconsistent or otherwise problematic on their part.

    This is a candidate who opposes abortion even in cases of rape. She opposes comprehensive sex education in schools (never mind that abstinence-only education has consistently been proven ineffectual), and would charge sexual assault victims the cost of their forensic investigations. And her running mate received the lowest score of any senator on the Children's Defense Fund scorecard.

    (For comparison, NOW called Joe Biden's 1994 Violence Against Women Act "the greatest breakthrough in civil rights for women in nearly two decades," according to the ever-helpful Wikipedia.)

    I don't have time to factcheck this, so correct me if I am mistaken, but I don't recall reading that either McCain or Palin is any particular proponent of paid parental leave, affordable daycare, equal pay for women, access to affordable contraception, or any other policy that would make professional success stories like Palin's more than a rare exception among American women. The fact that Palin herself is a woman really makes no difference here.

    I can't vote in this country, so this really isn't my election to obsess about, but I do think that reducing feminist groups' positions to "identity politics" is an oversimplification.

  • Palin, Two Weeks On   8 years 14 weeks ago

    Too bad Warner can't write anything about the real issues facing our country. If this is about emotional appeals and name calling . . . hey, it looks like we're running another race for junior high student council this year . . . and Warner is just another cog in the spin wheel.

  • Palin, Two Weeks On   8 years 14 weeks ago

    The most important thing we learned, we learned as soon as we heard that McCain picked Palin: That national security is not as important to McCain as some of us (and I do mean to include myself) thought.

    What we knew before McCain's choice:
    - Gone is the McCain of 2000 who resisted the efforts of the religious right to impose their religious views on the rest of us.
    - Gone is the McCain of 2000 who put fiscal responsibility ahead of politics.

    And we can now add:
    - Gone is the McCain of 2000 who (I believed) would never compromise national security for political gain.

  • Palin, Two Weeks On   8 years 14 weeks ago

    We may need the feds or non-profit think-tanks \ foundations to look into the insurance of insurance companies (AIG) - more disclosure, transparency, analysis, etc, of state-level liabilities and risk-management processes.

  • Palin, Two Weeks On   8 years 14 weeks ago

    The "least faithful followers" I had in mind were women who might have been on the fence about how much they should follow NOW's guidance on the elections.  So-called women's issues or one woman's advancement?  Read (if you can stomach it) Judith Warner's post yesterday about her adventures at a Palin event.

  • And McCain's Vice President Will Be...   8 years 14 weeks ago

    I would have to guess that the McCain will choose Sarah Palin of Alaska for his running mate. She is the logical choice and will nicely round out his ticket.

  • Palin, Two Weeks On   8 years 14 weeks ago

    You seem to be saying that, but I don't get it. NOW is not one of the Democratic party's least faithful followers, nor does Palin's pick put any sort of wedge between them and the Democrats.

    Maybe you were just talking about a certain demographic of women, who supported Hillary, even though nominally Republican. That makes a little more sense, but I don't see it having a big effect. The biggest upside to Palin's pick is fundraising.

    However, Sarah Palin is manifestly unprepared to be Vice President.

    While the politics look good, it seems she doesn't even know what might be referred to by "the Bush Doctrine". And her handling of it reminded me of all the bosses I most hated. I half expected her to say, "I was just testing you".

    I say that this will lose some Main Street Republicans. And they will be voters in states like VA, and could easily tip the balance.

  • Palin, Two Weeks On   8 years 14 weeks ago

    A newspaper insider told me that this was, by far, the most viewed article about Palin so far (as of last night) . . .

  • Palin, Two Weeks On   8 years 14 weeks ago

    will be next to go down.

    My bad . . .

  • Palin, Two Weeks On   8 years 14 weeks ago

    Lehman is dead in the water and government doesn't want to bail them out (politically risky). Wamu is being taken down for the count right now, soon to be finished off. The locusts have now swarmed to AIG and Merrill.

    The financial collapse cannot be swept under the rug with trite sound bites and "you'll love the hockey mom who has no economic or foreign relations experience" distraction.

    We're headed for the most severe recession in 80 years . . . read Galbraith's "The Great Crash". The parallels are uncanny.

    The Republican tactic of divide, distract, and distort will is providing a short term boost . . . but people are losing their wealth and jobs . . . at a rapid clip here . . . and no amount of lipstick can pretty it up.

  • Results Of LA Special Election Are A Big Deal   8 years 14 weeks ago

    Yes, there are many reasons why many in the the middle class are dissatisfied with Republican leadership.

  • Remembering 9/11   8 years 14 weeks ago


    Thanks for sharing that letter.

    I think my most piercing memory of the days and weeks following 9/11 were the flyers. The flyers posted seemingly on every store window and other vertical surface. Each had a photo of someone, most smiling in apparently good times, one holding a baby. Some had the word "MISSING", some didn't because it was painfully self-evident. Each had the missing person's name and employer and said something like "101st Floor, WTC #1". And each had a phone number of an obviously desperate person to call if the missing person were found, which all knew just wasn't going to happen.

  • Remembering 9/11   8 years 14 weeks ago

    The column of light is up tonight.

    Brings back a lot of memories.

    Seven years is a long time, and not so long at all.

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