Crumbling GOP Marriage Of Convenience May Be Opportunity For Democrats
The Republican coalition from the 1980s and 90s of social and financial conservatives has always been a marriage of convenience.
While there is some overlap between the two groups, for the most part the two lead very separate lives, sleep in separate bedrooms, and do very different things. They joined together in political matrimony and were seen together in public because that was the easiest way for each one to have a chance at being in and exercising power.
So what happens when that chance decreases or collapses and severe troubles develop between the two previous marriage of convenience partners? First, marriage counseling. Second, either a reconciliation or divorce.
That's what we're seeing now in the GOP. The reports from the Republican Governors' Association meeting in Miami indicate that, as the media likes to say, a fight is being waged for the "soul" of the Republican Party, with social and financial conservatives battling for where the GOP should go. Counseling was provided yesterday by former GOP House Speaker and long-time firebrand Newt Gingrich, who suprisingly said yesterday the party had to move toward the political center. That apparently angered social conservatives who believe the party needs to move more to the right.
Reading the reports was like watching an episode of the recent HBO program, In Treatment.
One GOP-leaning columnist has already declared the counseling to be unsuccessful. According to David Brooks, social conservatives have simply decided that they will be the heart of the GOP and everyone else can come along for the ride if they want but they won't be driving the bus.
That leaves one big question: What will the financial conservatives do?
For six reasons, it's not inconceivable that the Democrats will offer them a better deal.
First, financial conservatives may not see a Palin-led, social conservative-oriented GOP as a path to power.
Second, for the next year or so, that is, while economic recovery is the major issue in the U.S., the deficit, federal spending, and the national debt won't or can't be major concerns.
Third, financial conservatives will want to be part of the policy decisions the Democrats will be making.
Fourth, Democrats will get credit if the economy picks up and will have an excellent chance of retaining the White House and House and Senate majorities if it recovers. Being part of the conversation with Democrats may, therefore, be the financial conservatives best hope of having access to that power.
Fifth, there will obviously be a great deal of concern among financial conservatives about the possibility of tax increases with the Democrats in power. But except for the most wealthy, the new Democratic president is planning to propose a substantial tax cut next year. This could divide the upper income financial conservatives from those earning less and make the lower-income group more affectionate to the Democrats.
Finally, as I've said before, if the newly elected House Democrats want to be reelected in 2010, they will have to vote their previously Republican congressional districts. This likely means they will be relatively fiscally conservative and will put the Blue Dog Democrats -- who often look and sound like financial conservative Republicans -- in to the balance of power next year. Both of these will appeal to financial conservatives.
I Commented On This To Andrew Sullivan Yesterday
[DISCLOSURE: I'm a Democrat] ; )
Do you realize that the four (as of today) leading Republican candidates for President will be Palin, Jindal, Huckabee and Romney. Of the four three are theocrats who IMO would push a Christian politico/religious agenda on the rest of the nation.
The Republican party is finished. It is now a pseudo-religious organization with political ambitions. The fiscal conservatives, the heart and soul of the GOP for so long have been pushed to the sidelines and have little power. It is time for the fiscal conservatives to begin to look into a third party to organize within, or look to become Blue Dog Democrats. I'd prefer the latter, expanding the ranks of the Democrats so as to keep the Theocrats, er, GOP, from power. And now would be the time to do it, considering the recent economic meltdown even the most liberal of lefties within the Democratic ranks would welcome those advocating fiscal responsibility.
Let the Christianist wither and die on the vine, angrily waving their banners against gays and abortion and imposing their family values upon each other instead of us.
The other option might be to go Libertarian but let's face it, that party is just white dudes who cannot accept that America has changed and they are no longer the predominant political force.
If there was ever a time for God to intervene, now would be nice. One of two things would happen, Palin, Jindal and Huckabee could be right, evolution is a farce, the Bible literal and God's appearance means the rapture has begun, in which case he will remove them from earth and leave us to our heathen lives, or they are dead wrong and God brings a divine smackdown on them. I'm good with the results in either case.
Cheers
Steve
What fiscal conservatives?
What marriage?
Where are the actual fiscal conservatives in the GOP?
I see the occasional "free market" rhetoric (when the GOP is not trying to prop up steel/car/argbiz companies through protectionism and subsidies), I see the occasional "lower taxes" rhetoric.
But where is the "lower overall spending" reality? No one is even suggesting it. Heck, the GOP passed a huge socialized health package (Medicare prescription drug benefit).
GOP theocrats are upset at changing the definition of "marriage", I am upset about changing the definition of "fiscal conservative"!
Beyond Conservatism
Many politically savvy thumbs sticking in the wind are becoming increasingly sensitive to the “spiritual hunger” aspect of the Zeitgeist. Al Gore and Barack Obama are already successfully exploiting it to bootstrap their own glamorous personality cults. Feminism, radical environmentalism, animal rights, anti-globalization, anti-Americanism, global-warming hysteria, and all-encompassing Statism, are all very much in vogue.
Such developments should attune Conservatives to the cultural necessities of our times: Americans are experimenting with many templates of morality, but they would rather succumb to nihilism or moral relativism than return to the “caves”. Judeo-Christianity is going to die and unless Conservatives genuinely reform their movement to develop enticing modern ideological propositions, the Left will undoubtedly win by default and civilization will eventually succumb to the void.