So Goes The Nation?

My adopted home state (30 years or so after I left, I'm still a New Yorker at heart) of Virginia produced election results yesterday that have to be very disturbing for anyone who thinks that Republican prospects in 2008 are still strong.  As a result, substantial increases in the Democratic majorities in the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate became more likely yesterday.

Not only did the Democrats win enough seats to take control of the Virginia state Senate, but one of the GOP losses was the wife of Congressman Tom Davis.

This is a big deal for a number of reasons. First, Tom Davis is (or perhaps was) one of the most popular and highly regarded Republicans in Virginia. Second, this is Congressman Davis' second loss in less than a month; he dropped his bid to become the GOP nominee to replace retiring U.S. Senator John Warner when the Republican hierarchy in the commonwealth decided to use a selection process that favored another candidate. Third, and easily the most important, Davis is the former head of the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee and so should have had access to substantial resources for his wife's campaign.

Although her loss had been predicted, Davis' wife was popular incument who only a few years ago would have had no problem getting reelected by a substantial margin. The fact that she didn't this time means that Fairfax County, northern Virginia, and the whole state, which not too long ago were reliably and firmly Republican, are now forcefully moving to the Democrats.

The immediate national implications are pretty clear.

1. Not that there was much doubt before, but former Governor Mark Warnermust now be considered the very likely replacement for John Warner. That's a Democratic pickup that will make it very hard for Republicans to regain control of the Senate in 2008.
2. Tom Davis is now expected to give very serious thought to not running for reelection. That will very likely be a Democratic pickup of a seat that otherwise would have been listed as safe Republican.
3. The fact that a former chairman of the RCCC has been treated so badly will not go unnoticed by Republican candidates around the country. They are very likely to increasingly break ranks with the GOP leadership and especially the White House to try to show that they are independent.

The absolute biggest loser in Virginia yesterday was George W. Bush. Tom Davis virtually blamed his wife's problems on the president from the start and was not shy during the campaign about saying that the president and the Republican Party were very unpopular in Virginia.

Although there were some unepected Democratic losses around the country yesterday, this is likely to be what most political analysts take as the biggest implication of Election Day 2008.