Can Republicans Win In This Environment?

I've been traveling much of the past two weeks for work. Nine cities, seven states, and close to 30 presentations about the election and the economy.

What I'm about to say is based purely on anecdotal information. It is not meant to be statistically significant or a good sample. And my audiences were anything but a good cross section of the general population.

But my conclusion is as straight forward as possible: Americans, or at least those I spoke to and with, are very very angry.

Their anger initially seemed to be directed at specific things. Understandably, gasoline prices always seemed to be the first thing mentioned, for example. In fact, the economy in general was a constant source of anger. No one I spoke with over the past few days seems to be looking at the current economic situation as positive. Costs are going up, jobs are going down, inflation is rising, housing is unsettled, investment opportunities are limited, etc.

People are really angry at George Bush.

Democratic anger is expected. But die hard Republicans are angry with him for screwing up what they not too long ago saw as a generation of GOP power. I can't tell you the number of times over the past two weeks when someone started a conversation by saying "I voted for George Bush but..."

But the biggest source of anger I picked up during my travels was because of what I'll call a perceived loss of swagger. Whether it was Texas, Oregon, California, or Minnesota, a whole bunch of folks seem angry about what they feel is a loss of prestige and power for the United States. Most often mentioned was:

  • The war
  • The dollar
  • The economy
  • Immigration
  • Financial markets
  • Gasoline
  • Perceived loss of power overseas
  • Poor performace of the U.S. military

...and what seems to be a sense that it's going to be tougher in the future to do well.

I don't mean tougher to get rich; few people talked about that as an option. But relatively simple things that many Americans have always been able to do and seemed relatively easy -- like buying and selling a home -- now appear to be real concerns for many people.

But what they're angry about isn't the specifics. It's the fact that everything seems to be so much harder than it used to be.

And the fact that they have fewer choices. They can't take the flights they want, can't seel or buy a house if they want, and have to think twice before buying the types of things they've always bought in the past.

My guess is this is why almost 80% of those polled now say the U.S. is headed in the wrong direction. The indivdual pieces like gas prices are less important than the overall feeling that life has gotten much more difficult.

My first conclusion from this very unscientific research is that it's going to be very hard for Republicans to win this November if this doesn't change soon. Whether it's fair or not, George Bush and his political party are being held responsible for this feeling. GOP candidates may not campaign with Bush this fall, but he'll be an albatross with them every step of the way nontheless.

My second conclusion is that, whoever he is, the next president won't have much time to turn this around. If something doesn't change by the end of 2009, Congress and the country may run away from the president in 2010.

My travels continue next week. More from the road.

This Just In: One of CG&G's devoted readers let me know that The Washington Post ran a story last week about why American seem to be so much more pessimistic than the data appears to justify.  Here it is.

Bad media plus stupid people = major dissatisfaction

Our 'fair and balanced' media have taken every opportunity to play up, exaggerate, or just plain lie about every problem on the list above. There is no way this would happen if Bush were a Democrat. The general public therefore sees misrepresented and exaggerated problems with no apparent solutions.

Much of the widespread Bush hatred is directly linked to the stupidity of many adults. They believe the President is the Magician-in-Chief who can magically cause or solve problems. High oil prices: Bush must have forced prices up to help his buddies in the oil business. Crash of sub-prime mortgage lenders: Bush caused that by raising interest rates. Harder to find a job: Bush let in immigrants who stole our jobs. U.S. military doesn't win instant victories: Bush brainwashed our generals into doing a bad job so the war will last longer and the Pentagon will buy more ammo and trucks and fuel from Bush's friends.

The same thing happened after the attacks of 9/11/01: the falling stock market was blamed on Bush. (And how stupid can people be to believe that a Republican president would want low stock values?) These kinds of widespread idiotic beliefs turn me off to democracy.

Good to see you are honest

Good to see you are honest about your lack of support for Democracy. I think you are in the right party bro. Your post was very funny. Sort of like Steve Colbert's line about the facts being liberal. Please post often.

I think it's far easier to

I think it's far easier to make a rational argument that these economic problems were created or exacerbated by policies promoted by Democrats, not by Republicans or George Bush.

The buck stops with executive leadership . . .

Bush and his cabinet led us into the war. I believe it was Bush, Rice, Rove et al. who provided the justification (anyone still believing the WMD line?) and strategy for invasion of Iraq. And the Bush League presided over the growth of the deficit as well.

So yes, they will be blamed. Americans have this funny way of looking to the executive for leadership -- they expect good government to lead from the top. It didn't happen.

Nobody expects a magician-in-chief, but they do expect an executive with a plan and a solid team to lead us toward economic prosperity and a position of respect on the world stage.

They gave Bush two terms to do it.

It didn't happen.

Personally I expected infrastructure building instead of falling bridges. I expected investment in America and Americans. We can't lead the world without the tools and workforce to do it.

The lack of vision of this administration has left the next generation bankrupt -- debt, fewer jobs that provide a living wage and benefits, inflation in basic commodities.

Most middle class Americans are worse off, in real terms, today than they were when Bush took office in 2000. Real wages and benefits have eroded, wealth has been destroyed (home equity has deflated), inflation continues to erode income.

The economy won't improve before the election, and in fact it will probably get somewhat worse. An ill wind blows for the Republicans.

If you weren't making money

If you weren't making money in Bill Clinton's America you must have been in a crack-induced coma. Remember those arguments we used to have about what to do with the budget surplus?

If you have been making money in W's America you must be a criminal, oilman or Halliburton shareholder.

Even W's net worth has gone done in the years he's been prez--that's got to tell you somethin'

The Republican responsibility admin.

>> I think it's far easier to make a rational argument that these economic problems were created or exacerbated by policies promoted by Democrats, not by Republicans or George Bush.

These are the same people that can't shut up about how poor people are poor cause they aren't responsible.

And now that they have broken everything they want you to know that it's all somebody elses fault.

Not surprising, Obama now leads by 15 points

Post new comment

The content of this field is kept private and will not be shown publicly.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

More information about formatting options

Captcha
This question is for testing whether you are a human visitor and to prevent automated spam submissions.