Debt Ceiling Deal May Be In Serious Trouble In The House
Don't make nonrefundable plans just yet for a vacation under the assumption that the debt ceiling agreement that has been hinted at the past 24 hours is, in fact, a done deal.
I'm hearing that there is significant opposition from the tea partiers in the House who (1) don't like some (taxes and military spending) of what's in the current deal and (2) think that they can hold out for more concessions from the White House by waiting until Tuesday or Wednesday. As of now, there's no indication at all that House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) has the political gravitas with his caucus to simply demand that it vote for any deal. The same dynamic that forced Boehner to change his plan earlier this week to please the tea partiers is still in place.
House Democrats aren't that happy about the deal either so House Republicans may not be able to count on them to make up for for the tea party missing votes as Boehner seems to have been assuming.
In other words...It's not over yet.
I suspect that there are
I suspect that there are methods of political persuasion that will never appear in the news that will be deployed on the teabaggers if it becomes necessary in the next day or so.
usual threats not working
I doubt the threats will work. Here's one tea party congressman that has been threatened to have his congressional seat redistricted out of existence.
http://www.urbanacitizen.com/main.asp?SectionID=3&SubSectionID=5&Article...
His response has been, FU and he is leading the fight against what he sees as Boehner's compromise.
The asian markets are up, and S&P futures are up, but here is one market that is not up on a likely debt deal. I think Stan Collender has been correctly skeptical all along...
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=749123
I'm hoping Obama is counting
I'm hoping Obama is counting on the teahadis going ballistic so that he can deliver an ultimatum to the Orange Man and to the Man of a Thousand Chins: give me a clean debt-ceiling increase, or I pull the 14th trigger.
But, given that we're talking about Obama, this is all a midsummer night's dream.
I would like to see this
I would like to see this happen, although we all know now BHO is an empty suit. I don't have many regrets in life, but voting for him is one. Won't make the same mistake twice
I agree Obama is not who I
I agree Obama is not who I thought he was when I voted for him the first time. But to say flat out you won't vote for him again? If Backmann, or Palin, or Perry were the nominee, you wouldn't vote for an empty suit over a lunatic?
I suggest enhanced interrogation techniques
I suspect that there are methods of political persuasion that will never appear in the news that will be deployed on the teabaggers if it becomes necessary in the next day or so.
I'm OK with everything up to and including waterboarding. After all, their own guys say it's not torture.
Multi Party System
If you want multiple parties like in Europe you must be enjoying this. We essentially have Progressive Democrats, Regular Democrats, Regular Republicans, and Tea Party Republicans. This deal will be between the two centrist parties with the Progressives and Tea Party members against. Great theater but is it the best way to run things?
Interesting times for Democrats
Stan, you might not have gotten it rigt about the bill being sunk in the House, but what is very interesting, is its lack of support among House Democrats, and they were cut out in the House and in the Senate ultimately. Bruce in an earlier column had described Obama as a centrist Democrat, and drawn a parallel with Nixon, as a centrist Republican. I have significant doubts about this, as the so called "Health reform act" is anything but - it building a further
structure, right on top of a really dysfunctional base system, Medicaid. I think Obama looked after Obama on this one - so no 2nd debt ceiling battle til after the election, and the Republicans/Tea Party scored points. I wanted Hillary to win the primary; I'd vote for Mark Warner in a heart beat. Obama is either MIA [typically], or about Obama [It's not everyone Bloomsberg would say is the most arrogant person he's ever met]. I sure hope that in the October budget battle, taxes are very much on the table.