We'll know much more about what, if anything, Congress will be able to do with fiscal policy when returns from its two-week recess next week.

In the meantime, some of the plans that were discussed before the recess began, especially the possibility of Congress not completing a budget this year, may have to be abandoned in light of the new projection provided by the Congressional Budget Office that, contrary to what many on the Hill had hoped, the current debt ceiling will have to be raised before the election. (Here's what OMB Watch reported on the subject.)

This presents Congress with an interesting dilemma. Adopting the politically tricky budget resolution conference report would mean the House would automatically also adopt separate legislation increasing the debt ceiling by enough to get through next year. Not adopting the conference report would mean that the House would have to take a separate, and typically politically painful, vote.

The question, therefore, will be what do they most want to see behind the door?

The budget resolution could be difficult for Democrats because Republicans will charge it assumes a huge tax increase. The debt ceiling bill could be a hard vote because it reminds voters of the federal debt that has increased so much.

My guess is that the Democratic leadership will prefer to get the budget resolution adopted so that they will be able to say that they passed one two years in a row and possibly avoid the debt ceiling vote. The budget resolution will also be the easiest (relatively speaking) vote for the Democrats all year because by law it can't be filibustered in the Senate or vetoed by the president. Only a simple majority will be needed.

But that's the rub. A simple majority may not be possible in the Senate, which these days might have trouble getting 51 senators to vote to approve the minutes.

So the decision will be about whether it will be better to debate but not pass a budget resolution or simply not try and move directly to the debt ceiling?