How Much Stimulus This Time?

Stimulus outlays may total only $200 b. in FY09. Congressional Budget Office estimates of the tentative $825 b. House stimulus bill with a mid-February effective date reveal a much slower spendout rate into the economy than I had expected.   I only have estimates of the $355 b. infrastructure piece so far, but reasonable guesses regarding the the $195 b. of transfer payments to individuals and to the states and of the $275 b. of tax cuts put to the total as low as $200 b. depending upon details yet to be legislated.

Stimulus: CBO estimated infrastructure investment would take years to be spent. Senate sources have released the attached Congressional Budget Office estimates of the $355 b. House Appropriations infrastructure spending package that the committee started marking up this morning.  CBO estimated outlays of $26 b.--FY09; $110 b.--FY10; $103 b.--FY11; $53 b. --FY12; and $62 b.--FY13 and the remaining $27 b. over the next five fiscal years.

$275 b. of tax cuts would go to taxpayers mostly through withholding and final payments a year from now. That would put about 30% of this into the economy by September 30, 2009 by my estimate.

$195 b. of transfer payment to individuals and to the states would spend out more quickly. Just over half of this money in direct payments to the unemployed and the poor and in direct payments to the states would reach them by September 30, 2009.