Election Guide

Obama seems headed for a strong win.  Intrade shows Senator Obama with a 92.6% chance of winning the presidency with 364 Electoral College votes to 174 for Senator McCain.  Other prognosticators are in the same range.  Here are the web sites I follow:

http://www.intrade.com/

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

http://www.electionprojection.com/

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/

http://www.cookpolitical.com/

Congress: Democrats expect to pick up at least 8 Senate seats.  The Senate is currently 51-49 if you count Joe Lieberman (Ind.-CT) and Bernie Sanders (Ind.-VT) as Democrats.  Senator Lieberman may switch parties if he is stripped of his committee chairmanship.  Of the 35 seats up this time, the Republicans are defending 23 (including all 5 open seats) and the Democrats 12.  The only Democrat in danger in Mary Landrieu (D-LA), and she has recently pulled ahead of State Treasurer John Kennedy, who switched from Democrat to Republican to run against Landrieu.  Ten Republican seats are rated tossups or worse: Virginia; Colorado; New Mexico; New Hampshire; Alaska; North Carolina; Oregon; Minnesota; Mississippi; and Georgia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2008

Congress: Democrats expect to pick up at least 24 House seats.  The House is currently 235D-199R-1vacant(OH-11-D).   Democrats are defending 6 open seats (where the incumbent retired), and Republicans are defending 26 seats.  Charlie Cook rates 11 Democratic seats as toss-ups or leaning Democratic, and 47 Republican seats as toss-ups or leaning Republican.  Up until a few weeks ago, most experts expected an eight to 12 seat pickup for the Democrats, but since then most have doubled those numbers.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2008

Early signs of how the election is playing out:

6 PM EST:  Indiana is normally a quick win for the Republicans, but it's a dead heat this time.  If Senator Obama wins here, it will probably be a very good night for him.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/in/indiana_mccain_vs_obama-604.html  Watch Kentucky to see if Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) wins reelection over businessman Bruce Lunsford.  Recent polls show McConnell ahead by six points. If McConnell falters, the Democrats would probably control at least 60 seats. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/senate/ky/kentucky_senate-917.html

7 PM EST:  All eyes will be on Virginia, one of the fastest reporting states, which hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.  If Senator Obama wins here, it could be a long night for Senator McCain.   Georgia is another normally Republican state that could swing Democratic.  Florida will probably be too close to call, but a win by Senator Obama here would make a McCain victory unlikely.

7:30 PM EST: Ohio will probably be too close to call until later in the evening, but if Senator Obama wins here, it will probably be all over for Senator McCain. 
West Virginia is another tossup state to watch.

8 PM EST: Most of the East Coast and Midwest close.  Pennsylvania, Missouri, and New Hampshire are the swing states to watch.

9 PM EST:  The earliest any network is likely to call the election.  If Senator Obama crests 200 Electoral College votes by now, the West Coast states (CA-55, OR-7, WA-11) would almost certainly put him over the 270 he needs to win.

Poll closing times: Indiana and Kentucky close first at 6 PM EST, and Hawaii closes last at 1 AM EST.  Most of the east coast and the Midwest closes at 8 P EST.  New York closes at 9 PM EST, and California closes at 11 PM EST. 

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G08/closing.phtml?format=ac

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/poll.closing/

Exit polling will become available at 5 PM EST, but use it with caution.  National media have pooled their exit polling to be conducted by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International in all 50 states. No House races will be covered -- only those for President, Senate, and gubernatorial races will be. These are experienced pollsters, but the 2000, 2002, and 2004 elections proved that exit polling can be misleading.  As a result, the networks have become much more cautious about calling elections.  Initial results will be limited to demographic turnout information.  No winners will be announced until after the polls close.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/poll.closing/

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=5973947

http://www.exit-poll.net/

A good State by State rundown of the election by NBC Political Director and former Hotline Editor Chuck Todd is at:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27478547/

Media coverage starts at:
5 PM EST      MSNBC
6 PM EST      CNN, Fox News Channel

6 PM EST      ABC, CBS, CNBC, C-SPAN, Fox, NBC

9 PM EST      PBS

10 PM EST    Comedy Central

Most of the major networks will end their coverage at 2 AM EST.

Online coverage worth checking out:

http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/oct2008/tc20081028_106181.htm

Ballot Initiatives on gay marriage, abortion, affirmative action, and other topics will be decided in 36 states.  Voters in 36 states will consider 153 ballot initiatives tomorrow.  That fewer than the 162 propositions in 2004 and 204 in 2006.  California's Prop 8 on gay marriage is the most widely watched, along with South Dakota's Initiated Measure Number 11 on abortion, and Colorado's Amendment 46 and Nebraska's Measure 24 to effectively outlaw affirmative action programs.

http://www.iandrinstitute.org/BW%202008-1%20Preview%20(v4%2010-24).pdf

http://www.ncsl.org/programs/legismgt/elect/dbintro.htm

Other web sites:

http://www.c-span.org/Politics/

http://elections.foxnews.com/index.html