Pawlenty and Balanced Budget Amendment
I heartily agree with Bruce Bartlett's scathing description of Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty's proposal for a balanced-budget amendment to the Constitution: it's phony, simplistic, ill-informed and cynical.
But my wife stopped me cold this morning with this question: "Ed, what if you were a Republican politician right now, running against a Democrat? What else would you come up with?"
My short answer: I got nothing.
Obviously, there are plausible conservative ideas about how to reduce the budget deficit, deal with entitlements, reform health care or regulate financial services.
But the Republican leadership has pandered to the base for so long that it has boxed itself in. Any hint of supporting tax increases will set off a civil war inside the party. Any real cooperation with Obama on health care, no matter how nuanced, would enhance his stature as a leader. Ditto for teaming up on laws to reduce greenhouse emissions, whether through cap-and-trade rules, a carbon tax or tougher emission regulations.
This paralysis isn't simply the result of old-fashioned money politics. The GOP depends heavily on business for financial contributions, but Democrats raise a lot of money from business too, especially from Wall Street.
The Republicans have marginalized themselves by clinging to simplistic anti-government sentiment (except on defense, homeland security and civil liberties). That sentiment plays well in many places, but sentiment doesn't solve problems -- of which the United States now has a great many.
If you're a Republican leader, trying to oust Democrats in 2010, what are you going to do? Alienate your dwindling base by being consistent? Help Obama by actually supporting "bipartisanship?" Be honest about the hard math of taxes and spending?
Of course not. If you are an ambitious GOP governor like Tim Pawlenty, you change the subject and call for a balanced-budget amendment. If you're in Congress, you rail against "bailouts'' and ignore the fact that they were launched by the Bush administration. You attack Obama for not getting unemployment down, but denounce his stimulus bill. And if you are one of seven particular GOP senators, you wail about high deficits but vote against the bill you yourself co-sponsored to create a bipartisan deficit-reduction commission.
It may not be pretty, but what else have you got?


Any real cooperation with
Any real cooperation with Obama on health care, no matter how nuanced, would enhance his stature as a leader. ... If you're a Republican leader, trying to oust Democrats in 2010, what are you going to do? ... Help Obama by actually supporting "bipartisanship?"
That is truly terrifying logic. They will obstruct everything in the hopes that economic conditions continue to deteriorate, simply to pick up another half dozen seats in the next election. I guess it's accurate, but it's unusual to see it spelled out like that.
Republicans
The problem, as I see it, is that they have lost sight of their goal, insofar as their goal is to affect policy. If that were the case, then making deals with a Democratic president who can force enough Democrats in Congress to go along, is the optimum strategy. That is exactly what Democratic leaders did with Republican presidents from 1953 to 1974. Now, Republicans are focused solely on regaining power and care nothing about the substance of policy. That is why their current strategy is both rational and stupid at the same time.
As luck would have it
the Minnesota Republicans called to ask me for $75 yesterday. They started with a line about how great Pawlenty is (I had just finished Bruce's balanced-budget amendment piece). After I cleaned up the coffee I'd snorted through my nose, I listened to the pitch about how "we need to defeat the tax-and-spend liberals."
Sigh. The same old talking points. No real solutions to our problems . . . no talk about doing the people's work . . . I'm beginning to understand why FDR was elected to four terms . . .
Ed, First let me say that I
Ed,
First let me say that I concur with your observation and lament the degree to which many Republicans have boxed themselves in at the ideological extreme -- or perhaps better stated, at the "ideological-sounding talking point" extreme (whether or not a given policy position actually reflects the ideological extreme). And as you'll see below, I do concur that there are relatively few positions Republicans can take to bash Democrats (as a whole) that are both legitimate and likely to be taken by Republican candidates.
But don't you think Democrats have been acting similarly, becoming more boxed in and beholden to the far left and related constituencies, agendas and "positioning" (to use a marketing term)? Witness all the Democrats who opposed the Conrad-Gregg budget commission under pressure from voices on the left who screamed that such a commission would lead to cuts in entitlements (true, if the commission succeeded, but a blatantly irresponsible position for the left -- and Democratic members of Congress -- to take). Can a critical mass of Democrats sign on to anything including or implying significant cuts in eligibility or benefit forumulas for Medicare and Social Security? Can they support anything the unions strongly dislike (e.g., equal treatment if/as health benefits become taxable)? How about the trial lawyers (e.g., malpractice reform)? etc.
As for your question, "what else [has a Republican candidate] got?", assuming you mean arguably legitimate points (rather than just misleading rhetoric), for one thing he could claim that he'll try to prevent the Democrats from increasing social spending -- particularly an expensive new healthcare entitlement per healthcare "reform". But even with healthcare "reform", the arguments from some Republicans are nonsensical in that they erroneously imply we can have some parts (community rating [even with some limited flexibility] and guaranteed issue regardless of pre-existing conditions) without others (individual mandate and substantial spending on related subsidies).
It is very unfortunate, though, that Republicans have demagogued Medicare such that just about anything that may reduce projected spending is now even more of a third rail to members of both parties. That said, apparently some Republicans are willing to advocate future Medicare benefit spending caps (via vouchers) that imply that seniors will incur a much higher share of costs per Paul Ryan's proposal http://www.thehispanicconservative.com/paul-ryan-on-medicare.html
They could also argue that the recovery would have been stronger (and less taxpayer money spent inefficiently) if their preference for a more tax-cut-oriented stimulus had been adopted, a point I think is legitimately debatable, with room for reasonable disagreement.
With Obama increasing our effort in Afghanistan, Republicans don't have their usual "Dems are weak on national security" argument, unless the relative stability in Iraq deteriorates by November. They'll use Gitmo, but I don't think that will get them much outside the base they already have. Of course, if there is another Islamic terrorist strike inside the U.S. that would be a wild card in public opinion on the national security issue, if only due to the tendency to blame leaders for what happens on their watch (same for the economy).
I assume some will latch onto the "gays in the military" thing, and probably tie it to national security, as in "This is not the time to disrupt cohesion in the military and impede recruitment." I don't know whether or not (or to what extent) the premise that gays serving openly would harm cohesion or recruiting and thus military effectiveness is valid/invalid. I'm fairly ignorant on the matter.
Of course I'm leaving out all the crap that is expected but which I consider clearly misleading baloney (the kind of stuff that gets slammed by fact-checkers such as websites Politifact and Factcheck), rhetoric that they most likely wouldn't act upon if they could (e.g., preventing spending from growing over the coming years and decades; threatening Iran with military strikes), making mountains out of molehills (budgetary and other), clearly reckless positions that don't even hold water (e.g., sweeping tax cuts to supposedly improve our fiscal future), unjustified discrimination (fighting marriage equality for same-sex couples), etc.
So in a nutshell, the only argument that occurs to me as legitimate ideological (or practical) arguments and positions related to policy choices with big stakes (whether or not one shares the policy preference) would be if a Republican has the guts to support Paul Ryan's Medicare proposal and/or if a Republican takes the position of essentially no healthcare "reform" that would expand coverage much or address the matter of pre-existing conditions (just tort reform re: malpractice, access to health insurance plans across state lines, and other relatively minor "reforms").
What is your point?
That the only answer to deficit reduction is tax increases. Your getting your wish in the Obama budget. How much more do you want to raise taxes?
And if you're a democrat
You blame all the problems on the other guy.
I'm sick of it all. It really doesn't matter who is at fault. The problem doesn't go away because somebody else caused it. I've read a bunch of different sites in the last few days and 90 percent of the comments are about whether this party or that party is good.
Now is the time for a pox on both their houses.
Republicans were irresponsible. So were Democrats and I don't care who was more irresponsible. The simple question for both sides is what you are going to do now other than argue about who is at fault.
So far, neither side is doing anything. The President's budget raises spending even further from his budget of last year and $500 billion over the CBO projections of a week ago (based on his FY 2010 submission). The democrats argue you can solve the problem by cutting the military and raising taxes on the rich (you can't). The Republicans argue that you can solve the problem by cutting spending (you can't). Both sides spend a lot of time talking about waste, which while real, is rounding error.
If you want solutions, everyone is going to have to give. I see no indication that either side is willing to give on what matters to them. Until they do, there's nothing left to do but wait for the crisis/crash.
Pox on both your houses?
For years, I would have agreed with SteveinCh. It's true that politics is hardball, and neither party is in exactly enslaved to the truth. But it's a mistake to retreat to the seemingly even-handed comment that both sides are equally to blame. In fact, this has been one of the most cogent criticisms against mainstream journalists (including me, for most of my adult life). To appear "objective,'' we would often seek a false balance by matching up sins on both sides.
Democrats aren't blameless, and they were happy to obstruct GOP priorities through filibuster when they were the minority in the Senate. But Obama and Senate Democrats bent over backwards to entice Republican support for economic stimulus and for health care. With health care, it was positively embarassing. They lost months of crucial time, and got nothing in return.
What's really unfortunate is that the Americans would benefit from principled opposition. But that's not what we have, and I don't see it coming any time soon.
Ed, Re: Obama and Senate
Ed,
Re: Obama and Senate Democrats bent over backwards to entice Republican support for economic stimulus and for health care.
If your point is simply that Republicans are particularly unwilling to compromise in general, that's certainly arguable, but I hope you're not also suggesting that enactment of any of the versions of healthcare "reform" legislation would have been a step toward fiscal responsibility (i.e., making it easier to solve the problem of our long-term fiscal imbalance). Are you?
Yep
I can't speak for Mr. Andrews, but the correct answer is "yes".
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/02/the_spending_freeze_...
And yes, the GOP is particularly unwilling to compromise. See, e.g., Grassley's opposition to whatever Democrats support, even if he himself supported it yesterday:
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2009_09/020072.php
They are the most obstructionist minority of all time (of all time!):
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2010/01/they_all_do_it.php
For good measure, the Obama budget decreases the deficit:
http://www.tnr.com/blog/jonathan-chait/the-right-obama-and-the-deficit
Nope, you are either apply
Nope, you are either apply flawed analysis or no analysis at all. First, in it's projections CBO has to assume laws/policies (and/or law/policy changes) per a given proposal whether or not those laws/policies (policy changes) are at all likely. Second, even if laws/policies do indeed follow per the proposal being scored and even if all other assumptions prove accurate and the result actually is deficit-neutrality or some degree of net deficit reduction -- even on an NPV basis, which is yet another big "IF" -- a policy of very substantial incremental spending "offset" by the politically easiest and least painful budgetary sacrifices still makes it HARDER to solve our fiscal imbalance problem because it uses up those easier sacrifices to "offset" the incremental spending rather than to use as part of the solution the fiscal imbalance, leaving us only with more painful and more politically difficult sacrifices (made even more painful by the fact that the political difficulty causes delay during which the problem grows).
I don't know what data you
I don't know what data you use, but if you went back to primary source data, the CBO's estimate of the 2020 deficit (published before the latest Obama budget) was $686 billion.
The Obama budget had the same number at $1003 billion.
So the CBPP (hardly a neutral group) must have done some interesting analysis to arrive at the chart that Jonathan published.
Ed, I'm sure you perceived
Ed,
I'm sure you perceived Democrats as bending over backwards on the stimulus and on HCR but I perceive it differently.
It's in a way equivalent to the SS debate. Republicans could have bent themselves into a pretzel during the Bush admin and no Democrat would have voted to "privatize" SS. Why? Because the idea is inimical to what Democrats believe the role of the public and private sectors should be.
Similarly with HCR. Republicans largely speaking want to limit the economic role (but not always the social role) of government in society. The House bill was a substantial expansion of government's role in the economy (public options and national exchanges with minimum coverage requirements) paid for by tax increases (which Republicans are not too fond of). Republican preferences like tort reform (whatever its merits) were relegated out of the bill or into demonstration projects (which more or less amounts to the same thing). So where's the compromise in that. Any Republican presented with that bill should vote against it.
The Senate discussion is a bit more complex because some of the more egregious outcomes of the House legislation were lacking but I rather suspect that many Republican Senators may have concluded by that point that A) the bill was pretty unpopular and B) the fairly transparent legislative strategy of the administration was to "fix" the bill in conference. Further, the bill still contained very little in terms of Republican priorities (tort reform, interstate competition).
So I guess I'd say the opposition actually was pretty principled (excepting the disgusting demogoguing on Medicare, which of course paralleled the Dem efforts on SS reform).
My point is your view depends on your perspective.
My short answer: I got nothing.
"But my wife stopped me cold this morning with this question: "Ed, what if you were a Republican politician right now, running against a Democrat? What else would you come up with?"
My short answer: I got nothing."
You're kidding right? First off start explaining to the citizens of this country that it’s government spending, not government debt that has the potential to impoverish our children.
Then go out and focus on Keith Hennessey's latest:
http://keithhennessey.com/2010/02/02/decade-of-profligacy/