Are Republicans Squandering Their Political Capital on Ineffective Budget Cuts?
There's a new Harris poll out today that illuminates this question. It shows that support for cutting spending is mostly confined to small programs and that people want to increase some of the big ones. But Table 2 is the one that really caught my attention. It shows that there is considerably less appetite for cutting spending today than there was in 1981. Considering how little spending actually got cut in 1981, this suggests that Republicans may have a lot less political capital to play with than they imagine. It also suggests that their strategy of front-loading spending cuts in the fiscal year 2011 is very ill-conceived. They are using up all the political capital they have for cutting spending in a way that is highly unlikely to be successful and that will not yield long-term savings. By the time they get around to doing something about entitlements, they may find that budget cutting exhaustion and frustration has set in and there is no support left for big budget cuts. It may be that they have one bite at the budget-cutting apple and they are squandering it.
FAVOR CUT (NET) | Major cut | Minor cut | OPPOSE CUT (NET) | No cut in Spending | Increase in spending | Not at all sure | |
% | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
Foreign economic aid | 75 | 47 | 28 | 16 | 11 | 4 | 9 |
Foreign military aid | 69 | 40 | 29 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 11 |
Spending by the regulatory agencies generally | 56 | 23 | 32 | 28 | 22 | 6 | 16 |
Space programs | 54 | 24 | 30 | 37 | 26 | 11 | 9 |
Subsidies to business | 51 | 21 | 30 | 37 | 26 | 10 | 12 |
Federal welfare spending | 51 | 26 | 24 | 40 | 30 | 10 | 9 |
Federally funded scientific research programs | 42 | 14 | 28 | 48 | 31 | 17 | 10 |
Farm subsidies | 42 | 19 | 23 | 47 | 34 | 13 | 11 |
Defense spending | 41 | 15 | 26 | 49 | 34 | 16 | 10 |
Federal housing programs | 41 | 17 | 24 | 49 | 35 | 14 | 10 |
The food stamp program | 40 | 17 | 24 | 51 | 38 | 13 | 9 |
Pollution control | 37 | 15 | 21 | 54 | 36 | 17 | 10 |
Spending for mass transportation | 35 | 12 | 23 | 54 | 32 | 22 | 11 |
Federal aid to cities | 34 | 11 | 23 | 55 | 39 | 16 | 11 |
Federal jobs programs | 33 | 14 | 19 | 56 | 34 | 22 | 11 |
Federal highway financing | 31 | 7 | 24 | 59 | 41 | 18 | 10 |
Revenue sharing with states and cities | 28 | 9 | 19 | 55 | 41 | 15 | 16 |
Health care | 24 | 12 | 12 | 67 | 33 | 35 | 9 |
Federal aid to education | 21 | 8 | 13 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 8 |
Social security payments | 11 | 4 | 8 | 80 | 43 | 36 | 9 |
Favor Cut (NET) | Change 1980-2011 | |||
1980 | 2008 | 2011 | ||
% | % | % | % | |
Foreign economic aid | 82 | 74 | 75 | -7 |
Foreign military aid | 77 | 69 | 69 | -8 |
Spending by the regulatory agencies generally | 72 | 53 | 56 | -16 |
Space programs | 66 | 49 | 54 | -12 |
Subsidies to business | 69 | 62 | 51 | -18 |
Federal welfare spending | 69 | 52 | 51 | -18 |
Federally funded scientific research programs | 51 | 35 | 42 | -9 |
Farm subsidies | 53 | 44 | 42 | -11 |
Defense spending | 34 | 35 | 41 | 7 |
Federal housing programs | 54 | 39 | 41 | -13 |
The food stamp program | 65 | 43 | 40 | -25 |
Pollution control | 49 | 22 | 37 | -12 |
Spending for mass transportation | 42 | 28 | 35 | -7 |
Federal aid to cities | 58 | 33 | 34 | -24 |
Federal jobs programs | 57 | 34 | 33 | -24 |
Federal highway financing | 59 | 24 | 31 | -28 |
Revenue sharing with states and cities | 53 | 30 | 28 | -25 |
Health care | 37 | 12 | 24 | -13 |
Federal aid to education | 37 | 17 | 21 | -16 |
Social security payments | 23 | 8 | 11 | -12 |
Addendum
Andrew Sullivan comments here. My comment to him is this. The situation is analogous to the debate over stimulus spending in February 2009. Obama's economists all thought it was too small, but I think they went along because they just assumed that there would be further opportunities to add to it through the regular appropriations process. Well, they were wrong about that. It turned out that there was one bite at the apple and that's all. I think Republicans are making a symbolic gesture on budget cutting now, knowing full well that the real budget cutting will involve entitlements. But what if this is their only bite at the apple, just as it was for Obama and stimulus? Do they really think people will be just as supportive of budget cuts a year from now? I think not.
Most interesting to me in
Most interesting to me in Table 2 is the single category in which there has been a positive change in cutting favorability: defense spending.
The only positive shift
in Table 2 is Defense Spending.
In the tenth Year of the Wars, people are getting tired of seeing corpses and cripples come home.
Because even if you don't publicize the pictures, the neighbors look around them.
GOP strategery
You seem slightly surprised that Republicans are not thinking strategically or longer-term.
But they have shed most of their thinkers and replaced them with a mix of ideologues and short term win-the-day types.
Not much chance for success with that as your team.
You have to earn it.
Political capital is earned. They have not earned anything. Whatever they have gained, they stole or lied to get it.
GOP strategy: cut administration so government fails
I believe the GOP strategy is tocut away at the administrative budgets, even if it doesn't save much. That way new programs cannot be implemented and popular programs will not be continued, and they can show the failure of government. That, plus the resulting economic distress, will be what they campaign on in 2012. Starve the beast may yet happen.
Poll poeple that aren't educated about the issues...
and you'll get a worthless poll. The Harris poll only really says that people aren't paying attention to the spending problem, and thus aren't giving seriously considered answers.
But go along with your Republican bash of the day, don't mind me...
Our German problem
At some point someone simply has to do whatever willsave us the fate of Weimar German or 20th century Argentina.
And the ignorance, short term selfishness, or irresponsibility of masses or Americans is no excuse for opinion leaders and political leaders to bullshit everyone and support policies which will destory the country and empoverish us all.
Healthcare cost is the big apple
Bruce writes:
It may be that they have one bite at the budget-cutting apple and they are squandering it.
No, the situation is even more perverse.
They already have a big bite of the apple (healthcare reform) in their mouths, but they are trying very hard to spit it back.
The problem is that the GOP, which only wants to cut the part of the budget wasted on all those regulatory agencies and liberal do-good programs, is learning that those things are a tiny part of the budget.
Most of the budget is for things that send lots of checks to Republicans or pay for things, like defense, that the GOP can never get enough of.
Excellent post - I question the impact on Congressional races
Bruce -
Wow! this was super informative, and also a strong prediction re Republicans in Congress losing support because of actions now. At same time, it probably will have little to no impact on the Presidential race.
Also.... Republicans may learn from this experience and modify their stripes, and also people (voters) habits ane general mindset are ingrained, and, as we all know Americans don't know or remember much about politics.
... I suspect Fox News, Rush Limbaugh et al, may well have an impact on Congressional races when the time comes - I seriously doubt they will change their stripes. But I definitely hope you're right.
FYI, a 6th grader in my daughters' "advanced" class thought WWII was in the 80's 0r so..... Scary
Gosh, what a surprise this
Gosh, what a surprise this all is. People rant about the deficit, but then politicians keep costly tax cuts, people say they don't want cuts in the big expenses (social programs, defense). So Republicans are mainly using it for cover to go after regulatory agencies and other programs they oppose on ideological grounds. You would think the last few decades would have made it abundantly clear that neither party has ANY motivation to do anything serious about the budget, the deficit, the size or effectiveness of the government. Or to even so much as THINK about the really big problems that are coming down on us. Don't get me wrong, I WANT effective government, and I don't even mind paying a price for it. But what we HAVE is a government beholden to its corporate sponsors and helping them destroy what's left of the American middle class.
If Americans don't want to cut spending...
then why did they elect this Congress?
This poll even understates the problem
It says that people want to "cut" foreign aid, but actually, when they're asked (in other polls) how much they think is currently spent on foreign aid and how much should be spent, the median answers are something like 25% of the federal budget (currently spent) and 10% (should be spent). So, arguably they favor increasing foreign aid by a factor of ten (the actual current expenditure is about 1% of the budget). When they say "cut," they mean from the ridiculously high levels they mistakenly think are currently force.