Where the Monetary Debate Is Happening
Once upon a time, if you wanted to know what was happening in a particular field such as economics, you read academic journals like the American Economic Review. If you had a particular interest in, say, monetary policy you would read the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking and other specialized journals. And you needed to read things like the Federal Reserve Bulletin if you wanted to know what the Fed was up to and have access to the latest data.
Today, that’s all changed. If you want to really know what’s going on in terms of monetary theory and policy you have to be reading the blogs, some obscure even to economists specializing in monetary policy.
This really came through to me this week when I noted that Jim Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, responded almost immediately with a detailed commentary on a post by University of Oregon economist Tim Duy. I was impressed.
It made me realize that a relatively small number of blogger economists are really where the action is in terms of understanding where we are in terms of how monetary theory is impacting on monetary policy. Issues that might have taken years to resolve in the academic journals in the past are now dissected in days. But you have to know where to look. For this reason, I am posting a list of must-read bloggers that anyone interested in the cutting edge debate on monetary policy must be aware of.
Paul Krugman: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/
I list Paul first because he is probably the best known economist in the United States today by virtue of his Nobel Prize and twice-a-week column in the New York Times. The really important thing, however, and a bit of a secret, is that he is really a much better blogger than he is a columnist. His blog is essential reading because it tends to be the central place through which many monetary policy debates take place.
Paul, of course, has his own point of view and actively engages in debate. But he is far less dogmatic than his reputation suggests. Like all economists, he has been humbled by the experience of the last two years. At this point, he is just looking for anyone who has an idea worth serious consideration.
Brad DeLong: http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/
Brad is sort of Paul’s evil twin. As much as Paul doesn’t suffer fools gladly, Brad suffers them even less. But whether one agrees with Brad or not, he like Paul is a central clearing house for much of the cutting edge debate on macroeconomic policy, including both monetary and fiscal policy.
Mark is a professor of economics at the University of Oregon and without a doubt the most prolific economic blogger. I honestly don’t know how he has time for much else. Mark tries to link to just about everything. Anyone who claims to be an economist who doesn’t subscribe to his RSS feed may not deserve to be called an economist.
I’m not entirely sure how Mark positions himself among the various schools and sub-schools of economic thought these day. But that is to his credit. He tries to be an honest broker, calling attention to the work of any economist with something useful to contribute to the economic policy debates of the day by mostly letting them speak for themselves.
Scott Sumner: http://www.themoneyillusion.com/
By his own admission, Scott is a somewhat obscure economist at a college I’d never heard of until I discovered his blog. But over the last year or so he has contributed significantly to the debate on monetary policy. Like Thoma, I don’t really know how to characterize him on the economic spectrum. But Scott has become essential reading.
Tim is a colleague of Thoma’s at the University of Oregon who is more of a specialist in monetary policy. He posts much less often than Mark, but is always essential reading when he does.
David Beckworth: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/
Like Sumner, Beckworth is from a somewhat obscure school who has found his calling as a blogger. I think he defines himself as a New Monetarist. I don’t really know what that means, but in recent weeks he has been writing prolifically and interestingly about the whole question of what is the long-term impact of a low fixed fed funds rate that has been at the center of monetary debate since the issue was raised by Minneapolis Fed president Narayana Kocherlakota in an August 17 speech.
Stephen Williamson: http://newmonetarism.blogspot.com/
A professor of economics at Washington University in St. Louis, he appears to be another New Monetarist.
David Altig: http://macroblog.typepad.com/macroblog/
What’s interesting about David is that he works for the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He doesn’t post often, but his posts are always worth reading.
This is a group blog by some Canadian economists, but Rowe seems to be the main commentator on monetary issues. He teaches at Carleton University in Ottawa. I don’t know how to characterize his perspective and I’m not sure if he knows how either. But he is well worth reading.
I apologize for any mischaracterizations of those I have attempted to label. To be honest, I have no idea what the difference is between a New Monetarist and an old monetarist or a New Keynesian and an old Keynesian. Not being an economic theorist, I have had no reason to know, but those who characterize themselves and others with such terms seem to think they are important.
My purpose today is simply to call to the attention of this blog’s readers the fact that there is important stuff going on beneath the surface of the academic journals and even financial media sources such as The Economist and the Wall Street Journal. In the comments, please feel free to call my attention to any sources I may have missed.
Addendum
I appreciate all the comments and links. Many are those that I read on a daily basis but did not list because I was primarily interested in economists who devote themselves principally to monetary policy or are actively involved in the monetary debates that are going on right now. Economists who only occasionally discuss monetary policy but are primarily interested in other issues, and those that post on group blogs only very intermittently were left off. I didn't think it was useful to list every economist whose blog I read. Nor was I concerned with ideological balance. I was mainly concerned with both the quantity and quality of recent posts on monetary policy, and I was mainly interested in those that could be categorized as theorists rather than investment advisers.
The one person I believe I should have included in my original list but forgot was John Taylor: johnbtaylorsblog.blogspot.com/.
Further addendum
Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, responded to a post by Simon van Norden at Worthwhile Canadian Initiative.
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Thanks Bruce! I try to avoid
Thanks Bruce!
I try to avoid characterising myself. That way I don't have to try to be consistent! If I had to, I'd say I'm some sort of cross between a New Keynesian and an Old Monetarist.
I would say that Mark Thoma is mainly a New Keynesian.
I don't think David Beckworth is a New Monetarist. He's not much like Steve Williamson. But we don't necessarily have to accept Steve's definition of "New Monetarism", even if what he calls "New Monetarism" needs some sort of name, and "New Monetarism" is as good as any.
I don't know how to characterise Scott Sumner either. He's a bit like a Monetarist, in some ways. But he isn't really one. "Sumnerian".
Mostly, we don't think of ourselves in these categories. But I recognise that people need to put some sort of labels on us, to try to make sense of it all.
Monetary Debate
Would it be correct to say that you're probably more conservative than any of the bloggers listed here? Interesting.
Though you focused on
Though you focused on monetary policy debates, most on your list don't just do monetary. So I'd add Menzie Chinn and James Hamilton at Econbrowser. They're particularly good at dissecting other people's models and arguments. And they're excellent on sorting through data and trends, often with very useful charts.
http://www.econbrowser.com/
Chinn and Hamilton
are very good, but I don't think of them as principally monetary economists and I didn't want this list to include every economist who writes on the subject from time to time.
I've got a long way to go to
I've got a long way to go to figure out monetary policy, but have been keeping up with most of these recently. Thanks.
Great info
The wealth of info available at your fingertips at a minutes notice is astounding nowadays. Managing money I pull up useful info from blogs/websites etc all the time where I didnt have that ability when I first started out many years ago
The economists that I read ( other than Krugman from time to time ) are mainly from the investment side.
The info you just gave was great and I look forward to reading some of these you just listed.
Much thanks for the list provided
I'm sure there is good stuff
among Wall Street types--and even if it isn't any good it's important to know what market participants are thinking. My sense is that they tend to be way behind the curve and are more likely to be old-school monetarists and Keynesians than New Monetarists or New Keynesians. Unfortunately, their work is often inaccessible. Seems to me that they would want the world to know what they are thinking provided that their clients got the material first and could act on it before everyone else.
Growth Hawks vs. Japan Wing of the Fed
Sumner just posted a monetarist battleplan for growth hawks. The Japan Wing of the Fed has to be routed, if we are to get this economy growing again. Everybody, please read Scott Sumner.
Blog Time
With the exception of Stephen Williamson (you'll leave his blog knowing less than when you started) you've pretty much covered how I spend my current blog time. This is an on the mark summary of all that's worth reading these days from a monetary perspective.
Wall St Economists
A lot of them arent worth much.LOL A few I like a lot though. In my business when you have friends at most of the firms it's easy to access but you're right they like to keep their info generally to their own people initially but info travels very quick in that world nowadays. When an analyst downgrades a stock within minutes everyone on the street knows. Then they go on CNBC :)
I actually find some of the economic people who work for mutual funds/hedge funds pretty interesting to talk to.
More Blogs
I think you missed a number of imp. econ blogs. Here are 5:
-- Naked Capitalism http://bit.ly/aX1EFW
-- New Economic Perspectives http://bit.ly/9PFmh6
-- Moslereconomics http://bit.ly/augRQ3
-- Billy Blog http://bit.ly/8XIrgD
-- New Deal 2.0 http://bit.ly/bpbtjM
The New Deal site covers other things aside from economics. But the majority of their blogs seem to be on economics issues and a number of well-known economists blog there.
Joe: Most the blogs you
Joe:
Most the blogs you mention above are not mainstream monetary economists. They are Post Keynesians, MMTs, and other related ones.
Monetary Economics
The dean of monetary economics is the late Wynne Godley. See Godley and Lavoie, Monetary Economics (2007). Godley was last associated with the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College (http://www.levyinstitute.org/). The economists that Joe Firestone mentions also publish there. This is the cutting edge of monetary economics. Like Godley, these economists are intimately familiar with the operational reality of the modern modern system in great detail, e.g., reserve accounting, sectoral balances, and stock-flow macro models. They are also Post Keynesians who are familiar with Hyman Minsky. L. Randall Wray, who blogs at New Perspectives, was a student of Minsky, for instance. Scott Fullwiler also blogs there.
There are also people who have been or are active in finance in addition to academics, including Warren Mosler, who blogs at http://moslereconomics.com/, and Marshall Auerback, who blogs at New Deal 2.0. Also noteworthy is Rob Parteneau of MacroStrategy Edge, who is often a guest blogger at Naked Capitalism. Many who comment regularly on these blogs that are knowledgeable of monetary economy, especially people working in the field who blog anonymously, e.g., anon and JKH. Very interesting debates are also hosted at Interfluidity by Steve Randy Waldman (http://www.interfluidity.com/). Also, don't overlook Winterspeak (http://www.winterspeak.com/), who is also extremely knowledgeable.
Most probably already realized that Martin Wolf has also been writing incisively about monetary economics lately at FT.
Ignore these resources at your peril unless you are an accounting expert that knows how the various treasuries and central banks operate, as well as how commercial banking and finance works and interfaces with government in the major economies.
This is an overwhelmingly
This is an overwhelmingly leftist ("progressive") set of bloggers.
There is no balance in your list at all.
Who am I missing?
Feel free to post a list of sites presenting a competent right wing discussion of monetary policy. If you don't, I will assume there aren't any.
Economic thinkers
Although he is not an economist per se--more of a financier--John Hussman's weekly commentary delivers excellent, and I'll add, actionable information on the intended and unintended effects of monetary policy--actionable both for investors and for public officials. A classic line of his (in paraphrasing Milton Friedman) is, "inflation is always and everywhere a fiscal phenomenon." In other words, unrestrained government spending always--eventually--leads to inflation.
Another serious thinker is the realm of economic theory is Jeremy Grantham. Another, although you'll usually have to pay for his advice, is Porter Stansberry. Again, although these men are not necessary academically trained in economics, their deep knowledge of finance bleeds deeply into this field. They are well-read, historically savvy thinkers who have proven their mettle in the trenches of the actual monetary policy effects. Their voices should be listened to attentively by serious economic policy makers.
As an educator myself, I greatly respect the role that academic theory has to play in the decision-making process of policy makers. Nevertheless, in my opinion, pure academicians in the economic field should not be given carte blanche authority, to the exclusion of other serious voices, by government, fed, etc decision-makers. Have not these past two years of turmoil taught us to re-evaluate our traditional assumptions regarding the reliability of "authoritative voices?"
We must guard against the prejudicial exclusion of voices outside of the "traditional" bastions of authoritative thought--and even more emphatically when such thought could very well lead to subsequent large-scale action by decision-makers.
After having read my post here in response to Bruce Bartlett's call for "competent right wing discussion of monetary policy," do you find yourself recoiling at the prospect of of giving serious attention to people of the sort I've mentioned above? If so, I would humbly exhort you to examine your own possible prejudices toward "non-academicians" in the field of economics. You might find that you are unnecessarily, and even destructively, restraining your ability to construct a macroeconomic view that truly benefits individuals as well as society as a whole. Please make special note of this if you are a high-level decision-maker.
One last note: I personally find the terms "right wing," "left wing," etc unhelpful. They unnecessarily pigeonhole the vast array of nuances brought forth in theoretical discussions on economics. Yes, I'll concede that as human beings we tend toward tribalism, but would it not be wise to avoid such predilections when the costs of error in judgment are so high?
Links
would have been appreciated. I generally avoid commentators that are not easily accessible.
This comment; "John Hussman's
This comment;
"John Hussman's weekly commentary delivers excellent, and I'll add, actionable information on the intended and unintended effects of monetary policy--actionable both for investors and for public officials. A classic line of his (in paraphrasing Milton Friedman) is, "inflation is always and everywhere a fiscal phenomenon." In other words, unrestrained government spending always--eventually--leads to inflation."
Is reason enough to dismiss Hussman as a serious economic voice. To use such a simplistic analysis and come to such a non nuanced conclusion is evidence that this man isnt seeking truth by examination of our world but that he has already decided what truth is. Government is evil and all their spending will lead to woe.
Of course he is just disingenuous enough to say eventually, since the world being the way it is, costs for things will always rise eventually especially since we all want them. And when the costs do rise Mr Hussman and his ilk can conveniently point to government spending. Take something that will always be present, like govt spending,blame it as the reason for all things bad and when bad things happen ........you've got your ready made scapegoat......how niiiiice!
One of my favorite sites
A little off topic and not really just about monetary policy but the best way to get In my opinion to get non-partisan info on anything about budgets,social security or other topics is the Concordcoalition.org
I love them. I wish the people on the far right and left of the spectrum would start paying more attention to them
Easy. The following
Easy. The following represents a 5 minute thinking effort only.
This list is probably not balanced either if considered separately, but in the context of this discussion it should be OK. Also, not all of these people are really right wing - they may simply not subscribe to Keynesian religion.
Another couple of comments: these people write about monetary policy often, but also write about other things. I do not consider this to be a negative - after all, the so called monetary specialists missed the housing bubble and got plenty of other things wrong. A wider perspective is not bad.
You may say that some of them are not "serious professionals" - but again, sometimes getting out of ivory tower is a plus.
In no particular order:
http://keithhennessey.com/
http://www.zerohedge.com/
http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
http://www.theatlantic.com/megan-mcardle/
http://market-ticker.org/
http://blog.atimes.net/
http://www.hussman.net/weeklyMarketComment.html
http://streetwiseprofessor.com/
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/
And another comment: monetary
And another comment: monetary policy is being conducted by a central bank, which by its nature is a semi-socialist institution. We can argue about the precise term that fits the best - statism, socialism, etc. Given this it is snot surprising that most bloggers on monetary policy are leftist - believing in the omnipotent state and the Fed. Now imagine that you are Ron Paul. You want to abolish the Fed. Would you write at length about "monetary policy"? I think not. If Mr. Paul is too extreme an example for you - there are plenty of others who may not be as radical but still dislike what central banking has become. M. Friedman at one point suggested a few simple rules of steadily increasing money supply and leaving it at that.
So perhaps there is a "system to this madness" - people who obsess about monetary policy are very likely to be leftists. It is a good litmus test.
I an should have included
I an should have included Steve Keen :
http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/
Really? The Fed are socialists?
Thanks Wes,
For a moment there I thought you might be someone serious. I appreciate people who tag themselves appropriately. These days when I see people use the term socialist, except in a historical context of course, I don't have spend too much time trying to disect the intellectual versus spin components of their comments. Please enlighten us as to the lack of congressional authority for creation of the Fed in the first place. There's nothing better than information spiced up with a little disinformation to keep the sheeple moving in the direction you desire.
Thanks Bruce! This a great list. As a regular reader of your's, Paul's, Brads' and other's blogs (*cough* CR *cough*), it's nice to see an expanded list.
Mark
You seem to lack reading
You seem to lack reading comprehension skills. Where did I say that the Fed is not authorized by Congress?
> I don't have spend too much time trying to disect...
Yes, this much is obvious. Perhaps you should have spent a few seconds more reading what I wrote before hitting the reply button.
I would agree that the list
I would agree that the list is a little bit slanted left, but that is to be expected after your recent conversion.
I hope that you are reading Arnold Kling, Tyler Cowen, and Robert Murphy. They all regularly tackle monetary subjects and bring some interesting thought to the subject. Particularly Kling, who I think is becoming one of the best economists around and blogs prolifically.
Balance?
Williamson is extremely right wing (to the point of incomprehension). Sumner, Rowe and Beckworth are arguably right of center. Thoma and Duy are center to an extreme. Altig is simply a slave of the numbers. That leaves Krugman and DeLong. What planet do you live on?
Perhaps this has something to
Perhaps this has something to do with your idea of where the center is. Say, I can't imagine someone taking a look at what Mr. Sumner and Duy write and not consider them to be leftist. Let's see... The Fed is not printing enough money...inflation too low... stimulus not big enough... more government is needed... quoting Krugman admiringly every other day who wears his convictions on his sleeve... I am extremely surprised I even have to argue about this.
The Center
Sumner opposes fiscal stimulus and favors smaller government. He criticizes Krugman every other blog entry and Krugman occasionally returns the favor.
Yes, I would say we have a disagreement about where the center is.
Leftist?
I don't know about leftist. I'd say pragmatic and empirical.
However that may be, those were the kind of blogs missing from Bruce's list, so I don't think that balance in my list is the issue. I think it's balance in Bruce's list that was lacking and I did my best to redress that lack of balance.
Agreed, when i read that list
Agreed, when i read that list i laughed out loud.
Paul Krugman doesn't suffer fools gladly...lol. MY word then
the fellah must punch himself out every night.
Who are you missing?? Here's one quick on for you!!
Hi Mr. Bartlett you told me to find you on this site so here I am......Add one more pain in the behind...
www.newmonetarism.blogspot.com....
He's been having debate with messrs Thoma and DeLong and thrashing them quite well.....
and we both know you know of conservative monetarist, you've been in D.C since the 1970's, I'm sure you saw a few testify on your time on capital hill...Also how about Allan Meltzer you remember him right? He's been around for about 100 years and he's still kicking, here is where you kind find him.
http://blog.american.com/?author=20
If you want to find other "Right Wing" economist, go to google and type in Bruce Bartlett 1975-2003.........He was one one heck of an economist.
Helpful Hint
When plugging your blog, it helps if you use punctuation correctly, capitalize consistently and write coherently.
Communicating clearly, accurately and without ideological dissembling is more important than party identification. The right wing bloggers who understand that, however, seem to be disowned by the ideological right in short order and join the evidence-based debates everyone else is participating in.
Aside from Mr. Bartlett and
Aside from Mr. Bartlett and Krugman, the best economists writing today are (in no particular order): Dean Baker, Paul Craig Roberts, and Richard D. Wolff.
Progressive Bloggers
Wes: That's awesome. As soon as an economist disagrees with a conservative on a particular issue, he becomes a Progressive!
other blogs
Some other money / macro blggers worth reading:
Arnold Kling
Tyler Cowen
Steve Horwitz
Gerald O'Driscoll
Robert Murphy
Raghu Rajan
Bill Woolsey
You can easily google any of them.
Good Blogs
Aren't most of these linked off www.calculatedriskblog.com?
Bill does us all a great service too.
The Baseline Scenario
simon johnson, former chief economist of the IMF
http://baselinescenario.com/
TWO ISSUES: TRUST AND TIME
Bruce Bartlett: I like your list of recommended blogs on monetary theory and policy. Many of them I was not aware of. I have been reading and liking the web sites of some of the others recommended by commentators, in particular, Jeremy Grantham of GMO, John Hussman, Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff, Econbrowser and many others. There are some superb economics shops among various institutions (including banks) as well, particularly, Northern Trust Corporation, Wells Fargo & Wachovia, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu and others. AN IMPORTANT ISSUE IS TIME !!! I ONLY HAVE SO MANY HOURS IN A DAY OR WEEK TO READ ALL THE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS I WOULD LIKE TO READ !!! I HAVE MADE A POINT TO IDENTIFY THOSE ECONOMIC (INCLUDING MONETARY) ANALYSTS THAT I CAN TRUST !!! Another factor in play is that the growth of bloggers is in parallel with the demise of the printed press. Bloggers are sprouting up like mushrooms !!! The multiplicity of bloggers is similar to the plethora of talking heads on economics, etc. (there are so many of them) on television who (to me) almost all of them have no credibility and often make no sense at all !!! It’s fine for all the commentators in this site to recommend their favorites, but in the final analysis it comes down to two issues: TRUST AND TIME.
My area of interest in economics is business cycles. In the final analysis it is in business cycles where the rubber hits the road. But the huge problem is that there are so many analysts who are promoting their own theories and forecasts and there is such a plethora of leading and other indicators that it absorbs a large part of my time investigating. Again, in the final analysis it comes down to two issues: TRUST AND TIME.
Mr Bartlett: do you have a recommended list of analysts on business cycles and indicators ??? (John Hussman is very good at this.) Maybe this would be something worth looking at !!!
Thanks
Andy Harless at Employment, Interest, and Money
im back to add one who thinks out of the box on monetary policy, and is often featured by mark thoma: check the recent posts of andy harless & see if you dont agree...
http://blog.andyharless.com/