Dartmouth hosted another post-election panel yesterday, this one convened by President Jim Wright and consisting of a number of Dartmouth alumni who have engaged in public policy whether in office, in academia, or in the media. Here are some notes I took at the event:
- Was this really the shattering of a glass ceiling? If George H.W. Bush had won in 1992 and the field were wide open and the economy were in the toilet in 1996, would Obama and the campaign that he ran in 2008 have also won in 1996? I think so. What do you think?
- Why do Democrats still have to answer Republican questions, even when they win the election? George W. Bush loses the popular vote and governs like he won a mandate. Obama wins convincingly and he is somehow supposed to take it slow? Not if he really does want to solidify a realignment.
- What happens if these new voters from 2008 are unemployed in 2010 or 2012? I'm guessing they will want change again. Obama has such a tough road ahead of him.
- If the Obama administration is going well in 2012, would Obama drop Biden as a running mate to set up a chosen successor for 2016?
- Will the Democrats ever nominate a white male for the top spot again?
- When will the Republicans nominate someone for the top spot who is much younger than his Democratic opponent?

More Election Reflections
1. Was this really the shattering of a glass ceiling? If George H.W. Bush had won in 1992 and the field were wide open and the economy were in the toilet in 1996, would Obama and the campaign that he ran in 2008 have also won in 1996? I think so. What do you think?
>> The shattering of the glass ceiling was
>> incidental to a political environment that
>> not even a Democrat could lose. John McCain
>> did a remarkable job of damage control. But
>> it would have taken a significant schism
>> among the Democrats, as in 1968, or a major
>> mistake and two, as in 1972, 1980, 1984, or
>> 1988, for a Republican victory to have
>> occurred under these circumstances.
2. Why do Democrats still have to answer Republican questions, even when they win the election? George W. Bush loses the popular vote and governs like he won a mandate. Obama wins convincingly and he is somehow supposed to take it slow? Not if he really does want to solidify a realignment.
>> George Bush governed like he won a mandate
>> because it convinced a lot of people that he
>> won a mandate. The Democrats have to answer
>> Republican questions because they know that
>> they won a tactical vote that does not reflect
>> any major ideological swing in the country.
>> For example, look at the anti-gay marriage
>> initiatives and look at the New Hampshire
>> legislature. It was far from "winning
>> convincingly" in the 1964 sense. So the main
>> thing that Obama has to fear are the left
>> loonies of his own party thinking that they
>> have won their day. Nothing would be more
>> likely to ensure a Republican turnaround in
>> 2010 and 2012.
3. What happens if these new voters from 2008 are unemployed in 2010 or 2012? I'm guessing they will want change again. Obama has such a tough road ahead of him.
>> True, but more likely is that the widespread
>> disillusionment will cause many to return to
>> not voting at all. Reality causes that.
4. If the Obama administration is going well in 2012, would Obama drop Biden as a running mate to set up a chosen successor for 2016?
>> Probably not, unless Biden pulls too many
>> Bidens by putting his foot in his mouth or
>> stealing speeches and other authorship from
>> others. My sense is that latter-day Presidents
>> see changing VPs as a sign of weakness, a
>> concession that something is wrong.
5. Will the Democrats ever nominate a white male for the top spot again?
>> Certainly.
6. When will the Republicans nominate someone for the top spot who is much younger than his Democratic opponent?
>> Should we care? Does that matter? At any rate,
>> it is conceivable.
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