Pete is right to say that deficit hawks should unite, but I don't know if the SAFE Act is enough. It calls for a commission to address:
- the unsustainable imbalance between long-term federal spending commitments and projected revenues;
- increases in net national savings to provide for domestic investment and economic growth;
- the implications of foreign ownership of federally issued debt instruments; and
- revision of the budget process to place greater emphasis on long-term fiscal issues.
I agree that within a generation, the cost of our long-term entitlement programs will push our fiscal situation into very dire straits. Our long-term problems will have become short-term problems because we let our current window of opportunity to resolve them close. But the language in the bill does not mention, and the SAFE Commission would only tangentially have anything to say about, the fact that we cannot bring ourselves to balance the on-budget (or non-OASDHI) deficit to zero. And until we do that, or unless the SAFE Commission is explicitly empowered to address that in addition to the long-term entitlements, I think that meaningful reform of long-term entitlements is dead in the water politically.
Mind you, I do not use the imbalance in the on-budget account as an excuse for sanctioning the growing imbalance in long-term entitlements. But the Left, to whom the size of the long-term entitlement safety net is an important policy objective, is entirely justified in resisting a Commission that ignores the rest of the budget. Had we actually used the Social Security surplus to pre-fund (not just pre-authorize) future Social Security benefits, the task of the Commission would not be so severe. A dollar is a dollar.
Instead, the Left will say, had we not transformed trillions in projected surpluses into trillions in projected deficits, then the outstanding debt of the government a generation from now would be much smaller, and future taxpayers could accommodate more of the projected deficits in the long-term entitlements. A dollar is a dollar.
My disagreement with the Left is that I am more concerned about the intergenerational equity issues here than the intragenerational equity issues. My disagreement with the Left is not that there is some logical inconsistency in the arguments above.
I think Representatives Cooper and Wolf are on the side of the angels here. I just think their Commission needs to be more comprehensive in its mandate than what has been proposed.
For more on these issues, see these Vox Baby classics:
- Chairman Ben and the Long-Term Budget
- Which Budget Deficit to Target?
- Rove and Mythology
- The Center for a Responsible Federal Budget
Enjoy!










Clarity
How about avoiding euphemisms like "long-term entitlement programs" and saying what you mean - Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid.
Then once you have done that, you might also want to consider where the bulk of the federal budget actually goes and then explain why that should not be looked at as a cause for our deficits.
In case you are puzzled about what the mystery "entitlement" program that eats up 54% of the budget is, it's militarism.
Here's a nice chart:
Pie Chart
Starting wars, maintaining 750+ overseas bases and spending billions on useless military hardware is OK, but ensuring that people don't die in misery is an "entitlement".
How perverted the discourse has become when destruction is favored over health and welfare. And if you really want to get into the economics of the issue, then Social Security is not in any danger, it is not going to grow at a rate that will be a problem.
Medicare/Medicaid are self-made problems brought on by the unwillingness of congress to adopt any of the proven national systems found elsewhere which provide better care at about half the cost. The only ones getting the "entitlements" are the private firms in the health industries which are making obscene profits. Are they "entitled" to mark up a pill which cost $4 per month as a generic to $250 while they keep competition off the market? How about the chemo treatments for which they charge $100K per round?
Apparently using euphemisms allows the heartlessness of the anti "entitlement" position to slip by.
That's some pie chart of the future there.
"Here's a nice chart: Pie Chart"
What an odd chart. First it's for 2009(!) Secondly it says...
"Where your income tax goes ... The figures are federal funds, which do not include trust funds — such as Social Security — that are raised and spent separately from income taxes."
Apparently in 2009 there are going to be $2,650 billion of income taxes collected -- compared to only $1,533 in 2007, as per the unimaginative bean counters at the CBO.
Wow! Obama really is going to raise taxes!
So, if all non-"social insurance taxes" (Social Security & Medicare FICA/trust fund taxes, etc) -- i.e, income taxes plus, excise taxes, customs duties, etc.-- are going to grow from $1,698 billion to $2,650 billion (by near a trillion!) in just two years, *and* you are attributing to military spending fully 80% of the interest on the national debt, or $390 billion ... even though total interest paid on the national debt was only $237 billion in 2007 ... uh ... geeze...
Look ... this chart is from some Bizarro world of the future -- but no matter, for argument's sake let's handwave as true your manipulated to staggeringly-large military spending number of $1.4 trillion, up from CBO's mere $549 billion.
That $1.4 trillion, it's actually paid off every year -- and it's not so staggeringly large compared to the $2.1 trillion of debt accruing for just for Medicare and Social Security every year that's not being paid -- but which will have to be paid, plus interest, starting around 2017.
So if you think $1.4 trillion being paid is a disturbing lot, you must believe $2.1 trillion being added to the national charge card each year is a real whole lot, eh? Yikes, 50% more in fact, coming due soon!
"... spending billions on useless military hardware is OK, but ensuring that people don't die in misery is an 'entitlement".
Medicare and Social Security are targeted at those who are at risk of "dying in misery"?
That's why Warren Buffett is collecting and Bill Gates will be soon -- out of the paychecks of Warren's employees at Dairy Queen?
I didn't know that these programs were so tightly targeted at those at risk. That must be why they are running up only $2.1 trillion a year in debt on top of the other >$1 trillion in tax cash that's spent on them each year.
All the money spent to assure that all the rich in the US don't die as miserable paupers must be a good deal. No military-type waste in that.
Hey, here's the first baby boomer, Kathleen Casey-Kirschling, taking her first Social Security check and sailing off on her yacht the First Boomer -- saved from dying in misery.
Try some real clarity
If those are your views, then you should be 100% behind my suggestion of including the on-budget account--of which military spending is such a large portion--in the Commission's mandate to restore budget balance.
robertdfeinman, There's a
robertdfeinman,
There's a whole lot wrong with your comment.
I'll just point out the following.
(1) Your pie chart numbers seem quite suspect -- all that additional money attributed to current Defense spending -- and I see little substantiation.
(2) What is it that you propose we do about the "Past military” costs consisting of "veterans’ benefits plus 80% of the interest on the debt"? Do you have a time machine that would enable us to travel back to the past and choose NOT to engage in those wars?
There's more that's wrong with your comment, but I'll leave it at that.
Post new comment