Peter Baker of The Washington Post had a good story today about the latest battle in the appropriations war between the Bush White House and Democratic Congress. The story talks about some of the parallels between the current situation and the standoff in 1995 that led to a government shutdown.

Much like whether Joe Gibbs should continue to coach the Redskins, the possibility of a shutdown has suddenly become a big topic of conversation in Washington over the past few days. The reality, however, is that, while it might occur by accident, no one in either the Democratic or Republican leadership or at the White House is probably seriously thinking about it as a tactic.

The reason is simple: no one is sure who will get blamed if a shutdown occurs. The newly elected Republican majority in 1995 was certain it would be Bill Clinton.  But the president so skillfully managed the situation that Congress sufferered extensive political damage. Even the very charasmatic and telegenic House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA), who at the time was at the height of his popularity and power, couldn't control the situation. When the shutdown proved to be extremely unpopular, it was the GOP that suffered the most.

More than a decade later, that experience still haunts strategists from both political parties. The GOP seems to be most concerned, however, because of the president's extreme unpopularity, the White House's lack of credibility on economic issues, the lack of a credible economic spokesperson in the administration, and the fact that it was blamed the last time this occurred and could be perceived as a serial shutdowner.

Democrats, meanwhile, also have no credible spokesperson, no charasmatic congressional leader, and Congress has a low approval rating.

It's certainly possible that the White House will decide to roll the dice because it thinks it has little to lose by appearing to draw a line in the federal budget sand on spending.  After all, he's not running for reelection. But it's not at all clear that congressional Republicans who are on the ballot next November will want to follow the administration on that journey.

So for now, and probably for quite some time, a government shutdown just doesn't seem possible.