I've gotten more questions the past two weeks from folks on Wall Street about where the Pentagon budget is heading than I've gotten the whole rest of the year. The questions are not about what is happening now or will happen next year, but about military spending starting in 2009.

My answer almost always suprises the callers: Regardless of who is elected president and which party controls Congress, and even if all activities in Iraq and Afghanistan cease, it is very unlikely there will be a large drop in military spending.

Indeed, the Pentagon budget is more likely to be increasing than decreasing.

There are four primary reasons why the Pentagon budget will be going up rather than down in 2009 and beyond.

1. Replacement. Even before the current actitivities in Iraq and Afghanistan began, it was clear that the Pentagon had lots of equipment that needed to be replaced because it was aging and obsolete. Iraq and Afghanistan postponed some of that replacement effort but also made the need more acute. This will begin no later than when the current activities end and probably before.
2. Personnel. No one doubts that it's going to cost the Pentagon more, and perhaps much more, to recruit and retain personnel in the future. Frequent and lengthy deployments, reports of inadequate equipment, and a high demand for workers in the U.S. because of low unemployment all mean that salaries, benefits, living conditions, and bonuses will all have to increase.
3. Strategy. The Pentagon has started to say publically that the 1.5-wars-at-a-time planning scenario should now be reconsidered in light of the changing threats around the world. The most frequent talk is for 2.5 wars at a time. That's not doable with the current force structure.
4. R&D. There is a growing drumbeat for increased attention to research and development, especially as the Pentagon continues to see technology as being the best way to do more with fewer people on the ground.

The most frequent question I've been getting is whether a Democratic president and Congress will cut the Pentagon budget.  I doubt it.  The next president -- Democrat or Republican -- will be the one who will be in office as U.S. troops are withdrawn from Iraq and Afghanistan.  Cutting military spending at that same time will be politically difficult and foolhardy because that will make it far too easy to label the administration as weak and anti-military.  Increasing the Pentagon budget will be the easiest way to mute that charge.