This is a big deal.

Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel (R-NE) will announce tomorrow that he will not run for reelection.

 
The retirement of a senator from a small state who is a member of the minority party and isn't the ranking member of a committee isn't generally nationally important news. But Hagel:

1. Is smart
2. Is hardworking
3. Is a true fiscal conservative
4. Is Young (at least by Senate standards)
5. As far as we know, is in good health
6. As far as we know, has no impending legal or ethical problems
7. Has a military background
8. Is a former president of an investment banking firm

Hagel's retirement is the best indication yet that congressional Republicans don't believe they can or will retain the majority in the 2008 election, and that's the big news.

With the one-seat Democratic majority, the Senate was always going to be the Republican's best chance of re-taking control of one of the two houses of Congress. But Hagel is now the third Republican senator (John Warner from Virgina and Wayne Allard from Colorado are the others) to decide they won't run for reelection and the one of the three who was young enough and politically strong enough to stick around for a while.

Combined with the two other Republicans senators who are considered likely to retire (Domenici of New Mexico and Stevens of Alaska), Hagel's decision points to larger problems for Repubicans and bigger Democrat pickups in the 2008 election than had generally been expected. Although a veto-override and filibuster-proof number of Democratic votes is still a very long shot, a 55 45 Democratic majority is now a strong possibility.

The real value of that size majority will be in the committees, where the overall majority will be reflected in the memberships in the next Congress. That will significantly change the issues that will move forward and the bills that will be passed.